We publish no single base value for NVR, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $2,219.47 and $2,764.61 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,219.47 | -61.8% | free cash flow $818.25m, growth -9.58% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.5%; plus net cash $20.76 a share; stress floor $2,322.13 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,764.61 | -52.5% | earnings per share $336.51 valued at 15.89× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.92 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.95 (84% own, 16% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.97 (0.67 × 0.95 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.50% |
Free cash flow grows -9.58% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $818.25m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -9.58% | $739.86m | 0.9133 | $675.70m |
| Year 2 | -9.58% | $668.98m | 0.8341 | $557.99m |
| Year 3 | -9.58% | $604.89m | 0.7618 | $460.78m |
| Year 4 | -9.58% | $546.94m | 0.6957 | $380.51m |
| Year 5 | -9.58% | $494.55m | 0.6354 | $314.22m |
| Year 6 | -7.48% | $457.54m | 0.5803 | $265.50m |
| Year 7 | -5.39% | $432.89m | 0.5300 | $229.41m |
| Year 8 | -3.29% | $418.65m | 0.4840 | $202.63m |
| Year 9 | -1.19% | $413.65m | 0.4420 | $182.85m |
| Year 10 | 0.90% | $417.39m | 0.4037 | $168.50m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.50% − 3%) | $6.62bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $2.67bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.44bn |
| Total present value | $6.11bn |
| Shares outstanding | 2.78m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $2,198.71 |
| Plus net cash per share | $20.76 |
| Value per share | $2,219.47 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -14.58% | Growth -9.58% | Growth -4.58% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | $1,879.00 | $2,552.59 | $3,475.26 |
| 9.50% | $1,655.43 | $2,219.47 | $2,986.53 |
| 10.50% | $1,489.01 | $1,972.85 | $2,626.35 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.92 | 9.27% | $2,285.41 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $2,045.72 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.97 | 9.50% | $2,219.47 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $336.51 |
| Year 1 | -9.58% | $304.27 |
| Year 2 | -5.81% | $286.60 |
| Year 3 | -3.16% | $277.54 |
| Year 4 | -1.31% | $273.89 |
| Year 5 | -0.02% | $273.83 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $273.83 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.89× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $4,351.16 |
| Discounted at 9.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5739 | $2,764.61 |
We publish no single base value for NVR, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $2,219.47 and $2,764.61 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $3,989.63 and a 10% chance it is above $9,178.39 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $5,814.34, from 32.34% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.5% a year.
At $5,814.34 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -9.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $5,993.85 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $5,899.16 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $5,919.82 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $5,983.68 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $5,958.56 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $6,298.29 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $5,814.34 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.