We publish no single base value for NXP Semiconductors. Our valuation methods put it between $225.09 and $295.06 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $295.06 | +10.4% | free cash flow $3.49bn, growth 14.55% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.11%; stress floor $160.06 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $225.09 | -15.8% | earnings per share $15.17 valued at 16.79× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.82 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 1.79 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.82 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.55 (0.67 × 1.82 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.11% |
Free cash flow grows 14.55% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.49bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.55% | $4.00bn | 0.8920 | $3.57bn |
| Year 2 | 14.55% | $4.59bn | 0.7957 | $3.65bn |
| Year 3 | 14.55% | $5.25bn | 0.7098 | $3.73bn |
| Year 4 | 14.55% | $6.02bn | 0.6331 | $3.81bn |
| Year 5 | 14.55% | $6.89bn | 0.5648 | $3.89bn |
| Year 6 | 12.62% | $7.76bn | 0.5038 | $3.91bn |
| Year 7 | 10.70% | $8.59bn | 0.4494 | $3.86bn |
| Year 8 | 8.77% | $9.35bn | 0.4009 | $3.75bn |
| Year 9 | 6.85% | $9.99bn | 0.3576 | $3.57bn |
| Year 10 | 4.93% | $10.48bn | 0.3190 | $3.34bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.11% − 3%) | $118.54bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $37.81bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $37.08bn |
| Total present value | $74.89bn |
| Shares outstanding | 253.83m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $295.06 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 9.55% | Growth 14.55% | Growth 19.55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.11% | — | $336.51 | $444.38 |
| 12.11% | $223.98 | $295.06 | $387.59 |
| 13.11% | $200.07 | — | $342.44 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.82 | 13.32% | — |
| Peer beta | 1.79 | 13.18% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.55 | 12.11% | $295.06 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.17 |
| Year 1 | 14.55% | $17.38 |
| Year 2 | 11.09% | $19.31 |
| Year 3 | 8.66% | $20.98 |
| Year 4 | 6.96% | $22.44 |
| Year 5 | 5.77% | $23.74 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $23.74 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 16.79× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $398.55 |
| Discounted at 12.11% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7706 | $225.09 |
We publish no single base value for NXP Semiconductors. Our valuation methods put it between $225.09 and $295.06 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $170.54 and a 10% chance it is above $457.81 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $267.29, from 38.33% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.11% a year.
At $267.29 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 14.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $243.66 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $227.52 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $229.33 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $234.92 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $259.61 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $248.29 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $267.29 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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