We publish no single base value for Old Dominion. Our valuation methods put it between $90.39 and $142.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $90.39 | -47.3% | free cash flow $1.17bn, growth 3.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; plus net cash $2.14 a share; stress floor $63.52 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $142.90 | -16.8% | earnings per share $5.94 valued at 32.57× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.14 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.01 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.09 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.09 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 3.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.17bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.80% | $1.22bn | 0.9099 | $1.11bn |
| Year 2 | 3.80% | $1.26bn | 0.8280 | $1.05bn |
| Year 3 | 3.80% | $1.31bn | 0.7534 | $988.88m |
| Year 4 | 3.80% | $1.36bn | 0.6855 | $934.00m |
| Year 5 | 3.80% | $1.41bn | 0.6238 | $882.15m |
| Year 6 | 3.67% | $1.47bn | 0.5676 | $832.12m |
| Year 7 | 3.53% | $1.52bn | 0.5164 | $783.91m |
| Year 8 | 3.40% | $1.57bn | 0.4699 | $737.55m |
| Year 9 | 3.27% | $1.62bn | 0.4276 | $693.03m |
| Year 10 | 3.13% | $1.67bn | 0.3891 | $650.36m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $24.95bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $9.71bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.66bn |
| Total present value | $18.37bn |
| Shares outstanding | 208.12m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $88.25 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.14 |
| Value per share | $90.39 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.2% | Growth 3.8% | Growth 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $78.37 | $105.48 | — |
| 9.90% | $67.82 | $90.39 | — |
| 10.90% | $59.91 | $79.12 | $104.59 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.14 | 10.26% | $85.97 |
| Peer beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $93.39 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $90.39 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.94 |
| Year 1 | 3.80% | $6.16 |
| Year 2 | 3.56% | $6.38 |
| Year 3 | 3.39% | $6.60 |
| Year 4 | 3.27% | $6.82 |
| Year 5 | 3.19% | $7.03 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.03 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 32.57× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $229.10 |
| Discounted at 9.90% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6032 | $142.90 |
We publish no single base value for Old Dominion. Our valuation methods put it between $90.39 and $142.90 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $117.60 and a 10% chance it is above $272.99 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $171.66, from 32.69% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $171.66 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $180.48 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $181.97 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $187.72 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $182.70 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $172.56 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $164.92 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $171.66 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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