We publish no single base value for Oneok. Our valuation methods put it between $165.59 and $510.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $510.10 | +474.0% | free cash flow $2.53bn, growth 36.82% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.64%; stress floor $129.67 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $165.59 | +86.3% | earnings per share $6.39 valued at 14.87× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.77 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.55 (median of 20 S&P 500 Energy companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.67 (52% own, 48% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.78 (0.67 × 0.67 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.64% |
Free cash flow grows 36.82% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.53bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 36.82% | $3.46bn | 0.9205 | $3.18bn |
| Year 2 | 36.82% | $4.73bn | 0.8473 | $4.01bn |
| Year 3 | 36.82% | $6.47bn | 0.7799 | $5.05bn |
| Year 4 | 36.82% | $8.86bn | 0.7179 | $6.36bn |
| Year 5 | 36.82% | $12.12bn | 0.6608 | $8.01bn |
| Year 6 | 31.18% | $15.90bn | 0.6082 | $9.67bn |
| Year 7 | 25.55% | $19.96bn | 0.5599 | $11.18bn |
| Year 8 | 19.91% | $23.94bn | 0.5153 | $12.34bn |
| Year 9 | 14.27% | $27.35bn | 0.4743 | $12.97bn |
| Year 10 | 8.64% | $29.72bn | 0.4366 | $12.97bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.64% − 3%) | $542.68bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $236.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $85.74bn |
| Total present value | $322.69bn |
| Shares outstanding | 632.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $510.10 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 31.82% | Growth 36.82% | Growth 41.82% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.64% | $489.85 | $643.61 | $839.82 |
| 8.64% | $389.55 | $510.10 | $663.65 |
| 9.64% | $320.15 | $417.81 | $541.99 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $515.05 |
| Peer beta | 0.55 | 7.61% | $649.37 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.78 | 8.64% | $510.10 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.39 |
| Year 1 | 36.82% | $8.74 |
| Year 2 | 26.67% | $11.07 |
| Year 3 | 19.57% | $13.23 |
| Year 4 | 14.60% | $15.17 |
| Year 5 | 11.12% | $16.85 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $16.85 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.87× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $250.60 |
| Discounted at 8.64% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5134 | $165.59 |
We publish no single base value for Oneok. Our valuation methods put it between $165.59 and $510.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $67.91 and a 10% chance it is above $129.29 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $88.86, from 24.99% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.64% a year.
At $88.86 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 36.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $87.88 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $89.80 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $93.31 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $95.83 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $97.07 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $85.19 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $88.86 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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