We publish no single base value for ON Semiconductor. Our valuation methods put it between $33.28 and $43.09 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $43.09 | -41.6% | free cash flow $1.62bn, growth 2.93% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.69%; stress floor $33.10 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $33.28 | -54.9% | earnings per share $3.29 valued at 15.88× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.11 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.36) |
| Peer beta | 1.78 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 2.02 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.68 (0.67 × 2.02 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.69% |
Free cash flow grows 2.93% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.62bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.93% | $1.66bn | 0.8874 | $1.48bn |
| Year 2 | 2.93% | $1.71bn | 0.7875 | $1.35bn |
| Year 3 | 2.93% | $1.76bn | 0.6988 | $1.23bn |
| Year 4 | 2.93% | $1.81bn | 0.6201 | $1.13bn |
| Year 5 | 2.93% | $1.87bn | 0.5503 | $1.03bn |
| Year 6 | 2.94% | $1.92bn | 0.4883 | $938.84m |
| Year 7 | 2.95% | $1.98bn | 0.4333 | $857.72m |
| Year 8 | 2.96% | $2.04bn | 0.3845 | $783.70m |
| Year 9 | 2.98% | $2.10bn | 0.3412 | $716.15m |
| Year 10 | 2.99% | $2.16bn | 0.3028 | $654.50m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.69% − 3%) | $22.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $6.96bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.16bn |
| Total present value | $17.12bn |
| Shares outstanding | 397.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $43.09 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.07% | Growth 2.93% | Growth 7.93% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.69% | $36.29 | $48.04 | $63.59 |
| 12.69% | $32.80 | $43.09 | $56.64 |
| 13.69% | $29.95 | $39.06 | $51.01 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.11 | 14.62% | $35.92 |
| Peer beta | 1.78 | 13.14% | $41.18 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.68 | 12.69% | $43.09 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.29 |
| Year 1 | 2.93% | $3.39 |
| Year 2 | 2.95% | $3.49 |
| Year 3 | 2.97% | $3.59 |
| Year 4 | 2.98% | $3.70 |
| Year 5 | 2.99% | $3.81 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.81 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.88× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $60.48 |
| Discounted at 12.69% over 5 years: ÷ 1.8173 | $33.28 |
We publish no single base value for ON Semiconductor. Our valuation methods put it between $33.28 and $43.09 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $32.35 and a 10% chance it is above $150.29 in a year; a 47% chance it is higher than today's $73.73, from 59.62% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.69% a year.
At $73.73 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $84.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $77.53 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $72.02 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $72.25 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $71.67 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $63.31 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $73.73 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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