We publish no single base value for Otis Worldwide. Our valuation methods put it between $74.63 and $81.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $81.92 | +6.2% | free cash flow $1.67bn, growth 5.77% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.5%; stress floor $52.77 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $74.63 | -3.3% | earnings per share $4.07 valued at 23.14× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.87 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 1.00 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.96 (31% own, 69% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.97 (0.67 × 0.96 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.50% |
Free cash flow grows 5.77% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.67bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.77% | $1.77bn | 0.9133 | $1.62bn |
| Year 2 | 5.77% | $1.87bn | 0.8341 | $1.56bn |
| Year 3 | 5.77% | $1.98bn | 0.7618 | $1.51bn |
| Year 4 | 5.77% | $2.09bn | 0.6957 | $1.46bn |
| Year 5 | 5.77% | $2.21bn | 0.6354 | $1.41bn |
| Year 6 | 5.31% | $2.33bn | 0.5803 | $1.35bn |
| Year 7 | 4.85% | $2.45bn | 0.5300 | $1.30bn |
| Year 8 | 4.38% | $2.55bn | 0.4840 | $1.24bn |
| Year 9 | 3.92% | $2.65bn | 0.4420 | $1.17bn |
| Year 10 | 3.46% | $2.74bn | 0.4037 | $1.11bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.50% − 3%) | $43.52bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $17.57bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.71bn |
| Total present value | $31.28bn |
| Shares outstanding | 381.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $81.92 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.77% | Growth 5.77% | Growth 10.77% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.50% | $71.59 | $97.27 | $131.59 |
| 9.50% | $60.81 | $81.92 | — |
| 10.50% | $52.89 | $70.68 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.87 | 9.04% | $88.19 |
| Peer beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $80.20 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.97 | 9.50% | $81.92 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.07 |
| Year 1 | 5.77% | $4.30 |
| Year 2 | 4.94% | $4.51 |
| Year 3 | 4.36% | $4.71 |
| Year 4 | 3.95% | $4.90 |
| Year 5 | 3.67% | $5.08 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.08 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.14× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $117.46 |
| Discounted at 9.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5739 | $74.63 |
We publish no single base value for Otis Worldwide. Our valuation methods put it between $74.63 and $81.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $59.32 and a 10% chance it is above $113.39 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $77.14, from 25.15% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.5% a year.
At $77.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $64.05 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $65.95 | $64.45 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $71.33 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $75.15 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $75.75 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $78.96 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $77.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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