We publish no single base value for Occidental Petroleum. Our valuation methods put it between $64.16 and $91.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $91.75 | +57.1% | free cash flow $6.71bn, growth -4.38% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.65%; stress floor $75.28 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $64.16 | +9.9% | earnings per share $7.23 valued at 13.56× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Midstream and marketing' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.17 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.32) |
| Peer beta | 0.43 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.35 (30% own, 70% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.56 (0.67 × 0.35 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.65% |
Free cash flow grows -4.38% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.71bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.38% | $6.41bn | 0.9289 | $5.96bn |
| Year 2 | -4.38% | $6.13bn | 0.8629 | $5.29bn |
| Year 3 | -4.38% | $5.86bn | 0.8016 | $4.70bn |
| Year 4 | -4.38% | $5.61bn | 0.7446 | $4.17bn |
| Year 5 | -4.38% | $5.36bn | 0.6917 | $3.71bn |
| Year 6 | -3.15% | $5.19bn | 0.6426 | $3.34bn |
| Year 7 | -1.92% | $5.09bn | 0.5969 | $3.04bn |
| Year 8 | -0.69% | $5.06bn | 0.5545 | $2.80bn |
| Year 9 | 0.54% | $5.08bn | 0.5151 | $2.62bn |
| Year 10 | 1.77% | $5.17bn | 0.4785 | $2.48bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.65% − 3%) | $114.59bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $54.83bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $38.10bn |
| Total present value | $92.93bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.01bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $91.75 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.38% | Growth -4.38% | Growth 0.62% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.65% | $82.30 | $115.02 | $159.99 |
| 7.65% | $66.55 | $91.75 | $126.18 |
| 8.65% | $56.29 | $76.66 | $104.32 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.17 | 5.89% | $143.15 |
| Peer beta | 0.43 | 7.06% | $103.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.56 | 7.65% | $91.75 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.23 |
| Year 1 | -4.38% | $6.92 |
| Year 2 | -2.17% | $6.77 |
| Year 3 | -0.62% | $6.73 |
| Year 4 | 0.47% | $6.76 |
| Year 5 | 1.23% | $6.84 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.84 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.56× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $92.75 |
| Discounted at 7.65% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4457 | $64.16 |
We publish no single base value for Occidental Petroleum. Our valuation methods put it between $64.16 and $91.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $40.24 and a 10% chance it is above $89.28 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $58.40, from 30.93% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.65% a year.
At $58.40 the price implies free cash flow growing -11.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $58.08 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $60.11 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $62.38 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $64.17 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $64.00 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $56.38 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $58.40 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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