We publish no single base value for Palo Alto Networks. Our valuation methods put it between $284.34 and $297.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $284.34 | -11.9% | free cash flow $4.13bn, growth 24.49% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; plus net cash $7.08 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $297.32 | -7.9% | earnings per share $4.18 valued at 62.69× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.96 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 1.11 (median of 6 S&P 500 Systems Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.09 (17% own, 83% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.09 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 24.49% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.13bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 24.49% | $5.14bn | 0.9099 | $4.68bn |
| Year 2 | 24.49% | $6.40bn | 0.8280 | $5.30bn |
| Year 3 | 24.49% | $7.97bn | 0.7534 | $6.01bn |
| Year 4 | 24.49% | $9.92bn | 0.6855 | $6.80bn |
| Year 5 | 24.49% | $12.35bn | 0.6238 | $7.71bn |
| Year 6 | 20.91% | $14.94bn | 0.5676 | $8.48bn |
| Year 7 | 17.33% | $17.53bn | 0.5164 | $9.05bn |
| Year 8 | 13.74% | $19.94bn | 0.4699 | $9.37bn |
| Year 9 | 10.16% | $21.96bn | 0.4276 | $9.39bn |
| Year 10 | 6.58% | $23.41bn | 0.3891 | $9.11bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $349.40bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $135.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $75.89bn |
| Total present value | $211.83bn |
| Shares outstanding | 764.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $277.27 |
| Plus net cash per share | $7.08 |
| Value per share | $284.34 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 19.49% | Growth 24.49% | Growth 29.49% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $257.74 | $340.16 | $446.94 |
| 9.90% | $216.74 | $284.35 | $371.71 |
| 10.90% | $186.35 | $243.05 | $316.13 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $307.26 |
| Peer beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $274.01 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $284.35 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.18 |
| Year 1 | 24.49% | $5.20 |
| Year 2 | 15.89% | $6.03 |
| Year 3 | 10.74% | $6.68 |
| Year 4 | 7.64% | $7.19 |
| Year 5 | 5.79% | $7.60 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.60 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 62.69× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $476.67 |
| Discounted at 9.90% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6032 | $297.32 |
We publish no single base value for Palo Alto Networks. Our valuation methods put it between $284.34 and $297.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $127.19 and a 10% chance it is above $657.40 in a year; a 44% chance it is higher than today's $322.66, from 63.76% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $322.66 the price implies free cash flow growing 26.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 24.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $403.24 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $418.78 | $296.60 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $342.00 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $380.55 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $365.87 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $313.84 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $322.66 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on PANW · Palo Alto Networks company page · Call and put prices