We publish no single base value for Paychex. Our valuation methods put it between $111.33 and $119.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $111.33 | -3.3% | free cash flow $2.02bn, growth 5.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.22%; stress floor $70.62 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $119.25 | +3.5% | earnings per share $5.96 valued at 24.64× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.81 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.87 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 (0.67 × 0.87 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.22% |
Free cash flow grows 5.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.02bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $2.14bn | 0.9155 | $1.96bn |
| Year 2 | 5.90% | $2.26bn | 0.8382 | $1.90bn |
| Year 3 | 5.90% | $2.40bn | 0.7674 | $1.84bn |
| Year 4 | 5.90% | $2.54bn | 0.7026 | $1.78bn |
| Year 5 | 5.90% | $2.69bn | 0.6433 | $1.73bn |
| Year 6 | 5.42% | $2.83bn | 0.5889 | $1.67bn |
| Year 7 | 4.93% | $2.97bn | 0.5392 | $1.60bn |
| Year 8 | 4.45% | $3.10bn | 0.4937 | $1.53bn |
| Year 9 | 3.97% | $3.23bn | 0.4520 | $1.46bn |
| Year 10 | 3.48% | $3.34bn | 0.4138 | $1.38bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.22% − 3%) | $55.25bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $22.86bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.84bn |
| Total present value | $39.70bn |
| Shares outstanding | 356.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $111.33 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.9% | Growth 5.9% | Growth 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.22% | $97.87 | $133.29 | $180.67 |
| 9.22% | $82.46 | $111.33 | — |
| 10.22% | $71.30 | $95.48 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.81 | 8.78% | $120.27 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $102.89 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.91 | 9.22% | $111.33 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.96 |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $6.31 |
| Year 2 | 5.18% | $6.64 |
| Year 3 | 4.63% | $6.95 |
| Year 4 | 4.22% | $7.24 |
| Year 5 | 3.92% | $7.52 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.52 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 24.64× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $185.38 |
| Discounted at 9.22% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5546 | $119.25 |
We publish no single base value for Paychex. Our valuation methods put it between $111.33 and $119.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $76.58 and a 10% chance it is above $184.40 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $115.18, from 34.11% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.22% a year.
At $115.18 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $98.94 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $103.98 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $111.63 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $118.04 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $112.12 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $117.06 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $115.18 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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