On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Paccar is $49.10 a share, 53.8% below its $106.33 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the cash flow statement books the movement in a lending book as operating cash flow, so this is the group's funding position rather than this business's free cash flow, and no DCF can be built on it |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $46.10 | -56.6% | earnings per share $5.87 valued at 12.54× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Truck' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $52.09 | -51.0% | tangible book $36.51 a share at 1.427× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.87 |
| Year 1 | -3.36% | $5.67 |
| Year 2 | -1.13% | $5.60 |
| Year 3 | 0.31% | $5.62 |
| Year 4 | 1.25% | $5.69 |
| Year 5 | 1.86% | $5.80 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.80 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.54× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $72.71 |
| Discounted at 9.54% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5771 | $46.10 |
| Shareholders' equity | $19.26bn |
| Less goodwill | $0.00 |
| Less other intangibles | $0.00 |
| Tangible equity | $19.26bn |
| Shares | 527.70m |
| Tangible book per share | $36.51 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $2.38bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 12.33% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.54% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (12.33% − 3%) ÷ (9.54% − 3%) | 1.43× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $52.09 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $46.10 |
| Tangible book | $52.09 |
($46.10 + $52.09) ÷ 2 = $49.10
Base value $49.10 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $84.78 and a 10% chance it is above $152.62 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $106.33, from 22.82% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.54% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $109.68 | $40.27 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $108.04 | $40.12 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $110.82 | $44.36 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $106.96 | $44.77 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $101.91 | $50.23 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $101.98 | $50.55 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $106.33 | $49.10 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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