We publish no single base value for PepsiCo. Our valuation methods put it between $126.28 and $151.95 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $151.95 | +6.8% | free cash flow $10.47bn, growth 1.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $103.23 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $126.28 | -11.2% | earnings per share $8.42 valued at 19.76× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.32 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.13) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows 1.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.47bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.10% | $10.59bn | 0.9293 | $9.84bn |
| Year 2 | 1.10% | $10.70bn | 0.8636 | $9.24bn |
| Year 3 | 1.10% | $10.82bn | 0.8026 | $8.68bn |
| Year 4 | 1.10% | $10.94bn | 0.7459 | $8.16bn |
| Year 5 | 1.10% | $11.06bn | 0.6932 | $7.67bn |
| Year 6 | 1.42% | $11.22bn | 0.6442 | $7.23bn |
| Year 7 | 1.73% | $11.41bn | 0.5986 | $6.83bn |
| Year 8 | 2.05% | $11.64bn | 0.5563 | $6.48bn |
| Year 9 | 2.37% | $11.92bn | 0.5170 | $6.16bn |
| Year 10 | 2.68% | $12.24bn | 0.4805 | $5.88bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $273.78bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $131.54bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $76.17bn |
| Total present value | $207.71bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.37bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $151.95 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.9% | Growth 1.1% | Growth 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | $139.02 | $193.37 | — |
| 7.61% | $110.47 | $151.95 | — |
| 8.61% | $92.04 | $125.28 | $170.03 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.32 | 6.57% | $195.24 |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $181.70 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $151.95 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.42 |
| Year 1 | 1.10% | $8.51 |
| Year 2 | 1.58% | $8.64 |
| Year 3 | 1.93% | $8.81 |
| Year 4 | 2.20% | $9.00 |
| Year 5 | 2.40% | $9.22 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.22 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.76× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $182.17 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $126.28 |
We publish no single base value for PepsiCo. Our valuation methods put it between $126.28 and $151.95 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $112.58 and a 10% chance it is above $198.64 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $142.26, from 22.04% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $142.26 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $125.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $125.97 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $131.49 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $135.77 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $137.34 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $141.34 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $142.26 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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