We publish no single base value for Pfizer. Our valuation methods put it between $22.19 and $37.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $37.32 | +29.4% | free cash flow $11.79bn, growth -0.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.56%; stress floor $26.59 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $22.19 | -23.0% | earnings per share $3.05 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing states no operating profit for 'Biopharma'. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.31 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.31 (median of 6 S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.31 (75% own, 25% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 (0.67 × 0.31 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.56% |
Free cash flow grows -0.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.79bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.40% | $11.74bn | 0.9297 | $10.91bn |
| Year 2 | -0.40% | $11.69bn | 0.8644 | $10.11bn |
| Year 3 | -0.40% | $11.65bn | 0.8036 | $9.36bn |
| Year 4 | -0.40% | $11.60bn | 0.7471 | $8.67bn |
| Year 5 | -0.40% | $11.55bn | 0.6946 | $8.03bn |
| Year 6 | 0.17% | $11.57bn | 0.6458 | $7.47bn |
| Year 7 | 0.73% | $11.66bn | 0.6004 | $7.00bn |
| Year 8 | 1.30% | $11.81bn | 0.5582 | $6.59bn |
| Year 9 | 1.87% | $12.03bn | 0.5190 | $6.24bn |
| Year 10 | 2.43% | $12.32bn | 0.4825 | $5.95bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.56% − 3%) | $278.32bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $134.29bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $80.32bn |
| Total present value | $214.61bn |
| Shares outstanding | 5.75bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $37.32 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.4% | Growth -0.4% | Growth 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.56% | $34.05 | $47.47 | — |
| 7.56% | $27.09 | $37.32 | $51.20 |
| 8.56% | $22.61 | $30.81 | $41.87 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.31 | 6.53% | $47.93 |
| Peer beta | 0.31 | 6.53% | $47.93 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.54 | 7.56% | $37.32 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.05 |
| Year 1 | -0.40% | $3.04 |
| Year 2 | 0.45% | $3.05 |
| Year 3 | 1.09% | $3.09 |
| Year 4 | 1.57% | $3.13 |
| Year 5 | 1.92% | $3.19 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.19 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $31.95 |
| Discounted at 7.56% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4396 | $22.19 |
We publish no single base value for Pfizer. Our valuation methods put it between $22.19 and $37.32 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $23.21 and a 10% chance it is above $39.74 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $28.83, from 20.87% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.56% a year.
At $28.83 the price implies free cash flow growing -4.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -0.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $27.80 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $28.28 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $29.58 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $30.03 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $30.52 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $29.39 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $28.83 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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