We publish no single base value for Procter & Gamble. Our valuation methods put it between $127.17 and $143.06 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $143.06 | -14.9% | free cash flow $15.34bn, growth 3.52% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.74%; stress floor $90.48 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $127.17 | -24.3% | earnings per share $6.97 valued at 22.55× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Fabric & Home Care' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.36 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.37 (75% own, 25% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 (0.67 × 0.37 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.74% |
Free cash flow grows 3.52% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.34bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.52% | $15.88bn | 0.9282 | $14.74bn |
| Year 2 | 3.52% | $16.44bn | 0.8615 | $14.16bn |
| Year 3 | 3.52% | $17.02bn | 0.7996 | $13.61bn |
| Year 4 | 3.52% | $17.62bn | 0.7422 | $13.07bn |
| Year 5 | 3.52% | $18.24bn | 0.6888 | $12.56bn |
| Year 6 | 3.43% | $18.86bn | 0.6393 | $12.06bn |
| Year 7 | 3.35% | $19.49bn | 0.5934 | $11.57bn |
| Year 8 | 3.26% | $20.13bn | 0.5508 | $11.09bn |
| Year 9 | 3.17% | $20.77bn | 0.5112 | $10.62bn |
| Year 10 | 3.09% | $21.41bn | 0.4745 | $10.16bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.74% − 3%) | $465.23bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $220.75bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $123.64bn |
| Total present value | $344.38bn |
| Shares outstanding | 2.41bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $143.06 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.48% | Growth 3.52% | Growth 8.52% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.74% | $131.05 | $181.49 | — |
| 7.74% | $104.36 | $143.06 | — |
| 8.74% | $86.93 | $118.03 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $181.01 |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $176.75 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.58 | 7.74% | $143.06 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.97 |
| Year 1 | 3.52% | $7.22 |
| Year 2 | 3.34% | $7.46 |
| Year 3 | 3.22% | $7.70 |
| Year 4 | 3.14% | $7.94 |
| Year 5 | 3.09% | $8.19 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.19 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 22.55× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $184.61 |
| Discounted at 7.74% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4517 | $127.17 |
We publish no single base value for Procter & Gamble. Our valuation methods put it between $127.17 and $143.06 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $136.47 and a 10% chance it is above $230.88 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $168.03, from 20.41% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.74% a year.
At $168.03 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $144.91 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $151.23 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $159.35 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $161.02 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $161.57 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $165.40 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $168.03 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on PG · Procter & Gamble company page · Call and put prices