We publish no single base value for Progressive Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $272.91 and $614.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $614.92 | +161.1% | free cash flow $15.22bn, growth 3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.38%; stress floor $385.88 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $272.91 | +15.9% | earnings per share $18.44 valued at 18.23× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.22 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.29 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.26 (46% own, 54% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.50 (0.67 × 0.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.38% |
Free cash flow grows 3.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.22bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.00% | $15.68bn | 0.9313 | $14.60bn |
| Year 2 | 3.00% | $16.15bn | 0.8673 | $14.01bn |
| Year 3 | 3.00% | $16.64bn | 0.8077 | $13.44bn |
| Year 4 | 3.00% | $17.13bn | 0.7522 | $12.89bn |
| Year 5 | 3.00% | $17.65bn | 0.7005 | $12.36bn |
| Year 6 | 3.00% | $18.18bn | 0.6523 | $11.86bn |
| Year 7 | 3.00% | $18.72bn | 0.6075 | $11.37bn |
| Year 8 | 3.00% | $19.29bn | 0.5657 | $10.91bn |
| Year 9 | 3.00% | $19.86bn | 0.5269 | $10.47bn |
| Year 10 | 3.00% | $20.46bn | 0.4906 | $10.04bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.38% − 3%) | $481.13bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $236.06bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $121.94bn |
| Total present value | $358.01bn |
| Shares outstanding | 582.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $614.92 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2% | Growth 3% | Growth 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.38% | $572.77 | $796.85 | — |
| 7.38% | $446.73 | $614.92 | — |
| 8.38% | $367.34 | $500.62 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $863.26 |
| Peer beta | 0.29 | 6.43% | $784.09 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.50 | 7.38% | $614.92 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $18.44 |
| Year 1 | 3.00% | $18.99 |
| Year 2 | 3.00% | $19.56 |
| Year 3 | 3.00% | $20.15 |
| Year 4 | 3.00% | $20.75 |
| Year 5 | 3.00% | $21.37 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $21.37 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.23× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $389.62 |
| Discounted at 7.38% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4276 | $272.91 |
We publish no single base value for Progressive Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $272.91 and $614.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $175.95 and a 10% chance it is above $340.61 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $235.49, from 25.64% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.38% a year.
At $235.49 the price implies free cash flow growing -11.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $210.31 | $294.34 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $217.43 | $218.15 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $218.49 | $625.02 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $228.07 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $231.28 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $227.77 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $235.49 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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