We publish no single base value for Parker Hannifin. Our valuation methods put it between $714.93 and $784.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $784.18 | -18.1% | free cash flow $3.85bn, growth 11.87% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.68%; stress floor $422.32 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $714.93 | -25.4% | earnings per share $36.99 valued at 20.98× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.14 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 0.98 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.02 (24% own, 76% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.01 (0.67 × 1.02 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.68% |
Free cash flow grows 11.87% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.85bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.87% | $4.31bn | 0.9118 | $3.93bn |
| Year 2 | 11.87% | $4.82bn | 0.8314 | $4.01bn |
| Year 3 | 11.87% | $5.40bn | 0.7580 | $4.09bn |
| Year 4 | 11.87% | $6.04bn | 0.6911 | $4.17bn |
| Year 5 | 11.87% | $6.75bn | 0.6302 | $4.26bn |
| Year 6 | 10.39% | $7.46bn | 0.5746 | $4.28bn |
| Year 7 | 8.91% | $8.12bn | 0.5239 | $4.25bn |
| Year 8 | 7.43% | $8.72bn | 0.4777 | $4.17bn |
| Year 9 | 5.96% | $9.24bn | 0.4355 | $4.03bn |
| Year 10 | 4.48% | $9.66bn | 0.3971 | $3.84bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | $149.04bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $59.19bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $41.03bn |
| Total present value | $100.22bn |
| Shares outstanding | 127.80m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $784.18 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 6.87% | Growth 11.87% | Growth 16.87% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.68% | — | $934.74 | $1,254.86 |
| 9.68% | $585.17 | $784.18 | $1,046.37 |
| 10.68% | $505.90 | — | $893.22 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.14 | 10.26% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $801.78 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.01 | 9.68% | $784.18 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $36.99 |
| Year 1 | 11.87% | $41.38 |
| Year 2 | 9.21% | $45.19 |
| Year 3 | 7.35% | $48.51 |
| Year 4 | 6.04% | $51.44 |
| Year 5 | 5.13% | $54.07 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $54.07 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 20.98× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,134.49 |
| Discounted at 9.68% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5869 | $714.93 |
We publish no single base value for Parker Hannifin. Our valuation methods put it between $714.93 and $784.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $688.15 and a 10% chance it is above $1,475.23 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $957.98, from 29.6% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
At $957.98 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 11.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $972.55 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $962.56 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $963.34 | $605.16 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $880.57 | $607.30 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $899.82 | $609.50 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $917.79 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $957.98 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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