We publish no single base value for PulteGroup. Our valuation methods put it between $46.59 and $47.43 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $47.43 | -62.6% | free cash flow $1.30bn, growth -9.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.08%; stress floor $50.62 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $46.59 | -63.3% | earnings per share $9.31 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.1×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.16 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.14 (74% own, 26% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.10 (0.67 × 1.14 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.08% |
Free cash flow grows -9.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.30bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -9.80% | $1.17bn | 0.9084 | $1.06bn |
| Year 2 | -9.80% | $1.06bn | 0.8252 | $871.88m |
| Year 3 | -9.80% | $952.97m | 0.7497 | $714.42m |
| Year 4 | -9.80% | $859.58m | 0.6810 | $585.40m |
| Year 5 | -9.80% | $775.34m | 0.6187 | $479.68m |
| Year 6 | -7.67% | $715.90m | 0.5620 | $402.35m |
| Year 7 | -5.53% | $676.29m | 0.5106 | $345.28m |
| Year 8 | -3.40% | $653.29m | 0.4638 | $303.00m |
| Year 9 | -1.27% | $645.02m | 0.4213 | $271.77m |
| Year 10 | 0.87% | $650.61m | 0.3828 | $249.02m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.08% − 3%) | $9.47bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.62bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $5.29bn |
| Total present value | $8.91bn |
| Shares outstanding | 187.84m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $47.43 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -14.8% | Growth -9.8% | Growth -4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.08% | $39.83 | $53.84 | $72.96 |
| 10.08% | $35.52 | $47.43 | $63.57 |
| 11.08% | $32.22 | $42.56 | $56.47 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.16 | 10.35% | $45.99 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $47.68 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.10 | 10.08% | $47.43 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.31 |
| Year 1 | -9.80% | $8.40 |
| Year 2 | -5.96% | $7.90 |
| Year 3 | -3.27% | $7.64 |
| Year 4 | -1.39% | $7.54 |
| Year 5 | -0.07% | $7.53 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.53 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.1×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $75.30 |
| Discounted at 10.08% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6164 | $46.59 |
We publish no single base value for PulteGroup. Our valuation methods put it between $46.59 and $47.43 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $82.80 and a 10% chance it is above $208.09 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $126.90, from 35.77% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.08% a year.
At $126.90 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -9.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $115.73 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $112.12 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $113.55 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $121.19 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $124.74 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $132.49 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $126.90 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on PHM · PulteGroup company page · Call and put prices