We publish no single base value for Packaging Corporation of America. Our valuation methods put it between $188.18 and $224.76 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $224.76 | -10.3% | free cash flow $686.60m, growth 11.98% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.04%; stress floor $117.15 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $188.18 | -24.9% | earnings per share $10.61 valued at 18.65× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.76 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 0.90 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.80 (70% own, 30% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.87 (0.67 × 0.80 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.04% |
Free cash flow grows 11.98% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $686.60m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.98% | $768.85m | 0.9171 | $705.08m |
| Year 2 | 11.98% | $860.96m | 0.8410 | $724.06m |
| Year 3 | 11.98% | $964.11m | 0.7712 | $743.55m |
| Year 4 | 11.98% | $1.08bn | 0.7073 | $763.56m |
| Year 5 | 11.98% | $1.21bn | 0.6486 | $784.11m |
| Year 6 | 10.48% | $1.34bn | 0.5948 | $794.45m |
| Year 7 | 8.99% | $1.46bn | 0.5455 | $794.03m |
| Year 8 | 7.49% | $1.56bn | 0.5002 | $782.71m |
| Year 9 | 5.99% | $1.66bn | 0.4587 | $760.80m |
| Year 10 | 4.50% | $1.73bn | 0.4207 | $729.07m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.04% − 3%) | $29.53bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $12.42bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.58bn |
| Total present value | $20.00bn |
| Shares outstanding | 89.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $224.76 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 6.98% | Growth 11.98% | Growth 16.98% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.04% | — | $273.07 | $367.98 |
| 9.04% | $167.00 | $224.76 | $301.02 |
| 10.04% | $142.39 | — | $253.37 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.76 | 8.55% | $246.47 |
| Peer beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $219.45 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.87 | 9.04% | $224.76 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.61 |
| Year 1 | 11.98% | $11.88 |
| Year 2 | 9.29% | $12.99 |
| Year 3 | 7.40% | $13.95 |
| Year 4 | 6.08% | $14.79 |
| Year 5 | 5.16% | $15.56 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.56 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.65× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $290.13 |
| Discounted at 9.04% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5418 | $188.18 |
We publish no single base value for Packaging Corporation of America. Our valuation methods put it between $188.18 and $224.76 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $197.35 and a 10% chance it is above $359.70 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $250.58, from 23.3% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.04% a year.
At $250.58 the price implies free cash flow growing 13.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $228.54 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $230.51 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $236.00 | $169.57 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $247.29 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $256.82 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $249.70 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $250.58 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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