We publish no single base value for Philip Morris International. Our valuation methods put it between $103.82 and $223.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $223.15 | +13.5% | free cash flow $13.60bn, growth 5.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.7%; stress floor $131.86 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $103.82 | -47.2% | earnings per share $8.35 valued at 14.53× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.34 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.36 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.57 (0.67 × 0.36 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.70% |
Free cash flow grows 5.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.60bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.50% | $14.34bn | 0.9285 | $13.32bn |
| Year 2 | 5.50% | $15.13bn | 0.8622 | $13.05bn |
| Year 3 | 5.50% | $15.96bn | 0.8006 | $12.78bn |
| Year 4 | 5.50% | $16.84bn | 0.7434 | $12.52bn |
| Year 5 | 5.50% | $17.77bn | 0.6903 | $12.26bn |
| Year 6 | 5.08% | $18.67bn | 0.6410 | $11.97bn |
| Year 7 | 4.67% | $19.54bn | 0.5952 | $11.63bn |
| Year 8 | 4.25% | $20.37bn | 0.5526 | $11.26bn |
| Year 9 | 3.83% | $21.15bn | 0.5131 | $10.86bn |
| Year 10 | 3.42% | $21.88bn | 0.4765 | $10.42bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.70% − 3%) | $479.94bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $228.68bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $120.07bn |
| Total present value | $348.75bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.56bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $223.15 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.5% | Growth 5.5% | Growth 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.70% | $206.09 | — | $390.96 |
| 7.70% | $163.01 | $223.15 | $303.84 |
| 8.70% | $135.02 | $183.17 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.34 | 6.66% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.57 | 7.70% | $223.15 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.35 |
| Year 1 | 5.50% | $8.81 |
| Year 2 | 4.75% | $9.23 |
| Year 3 | 4.22% | $9.62 |
| Year 4 | 3.86% | $9.99 |
| Year 5 | 3.60% | $10.35 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.35 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.53× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $150.41 |
| Discounted at 7.70% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4487 | $103.82 |
We publish no single base value for Philip Morris International. Our valuation methods put it between $103.82 and $223.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $147.49 and a 10% chance it is above $285.22 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $196.66, from 25.6% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.7% a year.
At $196.66 the price implies free cash flow growing 3.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $187.46 | $106.49 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $201.19 | $107.47 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $205.20 | $114.14 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $199.47 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $208.79 | $104.78 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $197.88 | $105.12 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $196.66 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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