We publish no single base value for Pentair. Our valuation methods put it between $40.32 and $49.64 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $40.32 | -40.8% | free cash flow $646.60m, growth -4.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.59%; stress floor $36.01 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $49.64 | -27.1% | earnings per share $4.69 valued at 17.74× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.01 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 0.98 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.99 (25% own, 75% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.99 (0.67 × 0.99 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.59% |
Free cash flow grows -4.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $646.60m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.50% | $617.50m | 0.9125 | $563.49m |
| Year 2 | -4.50% | $589.72m | 0.8327 | $491.07m |
| Year 3 | -4.50% | $563.18m | 0.7599 | $427.95m |
| Year 4 | -4.50% | $537.84m | 0.6934 | $372.94m |
| Year 5 | -4.50% | $513.63m | 0.6328 | $325.01m |
| Year 6 | -3.25% | $496.94m | 0.5774 | $286.94m |
| Year 7 | -2.00% | $487.00m | 0.5269 | $256.61m |
| Year 8 | -0.75% | $483.35m | 0.4808 | $232.41m |
| Year 9 | 0.50% | $485.76m | 0.4388 | $213.14m |
| Year 10 | 1.75% | $494.27m | 0.4004 | $197.90m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.59% − 3%) | $7.73bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.10bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.37bn |
| Total present value | $6.46bn |
| Shares outstanding | 160.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $40.32 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.5% | Growth -4.5% | Growth 0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.59% | $34.38 | $46.86 | $63.81 |
| 9.59% | $29.92 | $40.32 | $54.36 |
| 10.59% | $26.60 | $35.48 | $47.39 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $39.82 |
| Peer beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $40.57 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.99 | 9.59% | $40.32 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.69 |
| Year 1 | -4.50% | $4.48 |
| Year 2 | -2.25% | $4.38 |
| Year 3 | -0.67% | $4.35 |
| Year 4 | 0.43% | $4.37 |
| Year 5 | 1.20% | $4.42 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.42 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.74× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $78.45 |
| Discounted at 9.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5804 | $49.64 |
We publish no single base value for Pentair. Our valuation methods put it between $40.32 and $49.64 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $42.73 and a 10% chance it is above $113.32 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $68.14, from 37.86% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.59% a year.
At $68.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $53.03 | $34.28 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $52.47 | $34.33 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $53.44 | $19.75 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $55.30 | $19.93 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $66.26 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $68.12 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $68.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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