On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Insulet Corporation is $155.36 a share, 4.1% above its $149.29 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $155.36 | +4.1% | free cash flow $260.00m, growth 19.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.4%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 72.5x is 3.8x the 18.9x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.06 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.34) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.93 (56% own, 44% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.95 (0.67 × 0.93 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.40% |
Free cash flow grows 19.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $260.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.20% | $309.92m | 0.9140 | $283.28m |
| Year 2 | 19.20% | $369.42m | 0.8355 | $308.64m |
| Year 3 | 19.20% | $440.35m | 0.7636 | $336.27m |
| Year 4 | 19.20% | $524.90m | 0.6980 | $366.38m |
| Year 5 | 19.20% | $625.68m | 0.6380 | $399.18m |
| Year 6 | 16.50% | $728.92m | 0.5831 | $425.07m |
| Year 7 | 13.80% | $829.51m | 0.5330 | $442.14m |
| Year 8 | 11.10% | $921.59m | 0.4872 | $448.99m |
| Year 9 | 8.40% | $999.00m | 0.4453 | $444.87m |
| Year 10 | 5.70% | $1.06bn | 0.4070 | $429.80m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.40% − 3%) | $16.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $6.91bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.88bn |
| Total present value | $10.80bn |
| Shares outstanding | 69.49m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $155.36 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 14.2% | Growth 19.2% | Growth 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.40% | $140.37 | $188.23 | $250.81 |
| 9.40% | $116.52 | $155.36 | $206.01 |
| 10.40% | $99.21 | $131.54 | $173.59 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.06 | 9.90% | $142.69 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $181.06 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.95 | 9.40% | $155.36 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $155.36 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $155.36
Base value $155.36 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $94.33 and a 10% chance it is above $246.59 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $149.29, from 37.3% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.4% a year.
At $149.29 the price implies free cash flow growing 18.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 19.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $131.69 | $98.65 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $135.28 | $98.36 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $141.10 | $225.72 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $149.01 | $229.20 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $149.68 | $235.96 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $146.51 | $162.95 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $149.29 | $155.36 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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