We publish no single base value for PPG Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $104.16 and $115.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $115.13 | -5.9% | free cash flow $1.28bn, growth 6.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.36%; stress floor $71.87 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $104.16 | -14.9% | earnings per share $8.00 valued at 16.09× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.00 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.86 (median of 5 S&P 500 Specialty Chemicals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.92 (41% own, 59% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.94 (0.67 × 0.92 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.36% |
Free cash flow grows 6.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.28bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.60% | $1.36bn | 0.9144 | $1.25bn |
| Year 2 | 6.60% | $1.45bn | 0.8361 | $1.22bn |
| Year 3 | 6.60% | $1.55bn | 0.7646 | $1.19bn |
| Year 4 | 6.60% | $1.65bn | 0.6991 | $1.16bn |
| Year 5 | 6.60% | $1.76bn | 0.6393 | $1.13bn |
| Year 6 | 6.00% | $1.87bn | 0.5846 | $1.09bn |
| Year 7 | 5.40% | $1.97bn | 0.5346 | $1.05bn |
| Year 8 | 4.80% | $2.06bn | 0.4888 | $1.01bn |
| Year 9 | 4.20% | $2.15bn | 0.4470 | $960.83m |
| Year 10 | 3.60% | $2.23bn | 0.4087 | $910.22m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.36% − 3%) | $36.07bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.74bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.95bn |
| Total present value | $25.70bn |
| Shares outstanding | 223.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $115.13 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 1.6% | Growth 6.6% | Growth 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.36% | $101.08 | — | $185.94 |
| 9.36% | $85.40 | $115.13 | $154.65 |
| 10.36% | $73.97 | $98.92 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $110.27 |
| Peer beta | 0.86 | 9.00% | $122.29 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.94 | 9.36% | $115.13 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.00 |
| Year 1 | 6.60% | $8.53 |
| Year 2 | 5.34% | $8.99 |
| Year 3 | 4.52% | $9.40 |
| Year 4 | 3.99% | $9.77 |
| Year 5 | 3.64% | $10.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.13 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 16.09× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $162.92 |
| Discounted at 9.36% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5642 | $104.16 |
We publish no single base value for PPG Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $104.16 and $115.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $91.34 and a 10% chance it is above $182.94 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $122.35, from 26.96% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.36% a year.
At $122.35 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 6.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $105.15 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $103.96 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $107.39 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $110.61 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $119.52 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $122.38 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $122.35 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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