We publish no single base value for Prudential Financial. Our valuation methods put it between $53.58 and $133.70 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $133.70 | +9.2% | free cash flow $10.61bn, growth -19.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.22%; stress floor $187.87 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $53.58 | -56.2% | earnings per share $13.73 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.8×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.86 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 74 S&P 500 Financials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.86 (90% own, 10% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 (0.67 × 0.86 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.22% |
Free cash flow grows -19.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.61bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -19.20% | $8.57bn | 0.9155 | $7.85bn |
| Year 2 | -19.20% | $6.92bn | 0.8382 | $5.80bn |
| Year 3 | -19.20% | $5.59bn | 0.7674 | $4.29bn |
| Year 4 | -19.20% | $4.52bn | 0.7026 | $3.18bn |
| Year 5 | -19.20% | $3.65bn | 0.6433 | $2.35bn |
| Year 6 | -15.50% | $3.09bn | 0.5889 | $1.82bn |
| Year 7 | -11.80% | $2.72bn | 0.5392 | $1.47bn |
| Year 8 | -8.10% | $2.50bn | 0.4937 | $1.24bn |
| Year 9 | -4.40% | $2.39bn | 0.4520 | $1.08bn |
| Year 10 | -0.70% | $2.37bn | 0.4138 | $982.73m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.22% − 3%) | $39.30bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $16.26bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $30.05bn |
| Total present value | $46.31bn |
| Shares outstanding | 346.40m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $133.70 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -24.2% | Growth -19.2% | Growth -14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.22% | $111.57 | $151.00 | $205.79 |
| 9.22% | $100.35 | $133.70 | $179.58 |
| 10.22% | $91.98 | $120.92 | $160.35 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.86 | 9.00% | $137.12 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $132.40 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.91 | 9.22% | $133.70 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.73 |
| Year 1 | -19.20% | $11.10 |
| Year 2 | -12.54% | $9.71 |
| Year 3 | -7.88% | $8.94 |
| Year 4 | -4.61% | $8.53 |
| Year 5 | -2.33% | $8.33 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.33 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.8×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $83.30 |
| Discounted at 9.22% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5546 | $53.58 |
We publish no single base value for Prudential Financial. Our valuation methods put it between $53.58 and $133.70 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $94.47 and a 10% chance it is above $178.69 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $122.41, from 24.74% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.22% a year.
At $122.41 the price implies free cash flow growing -20.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -19.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $112.60 | $65.57 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $113.09 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $115.91 | $123.76 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $114.99 | $121.54 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $116.45 | $120.56 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $119.24 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $122.41 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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