On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Phillips 66 is $2,605.42 a share, 891.0% above its $262.91 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,605.42 | +891.0% | free cash flow $12.36bn, growth 28.62% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.5%; plus net cash $0.09 a share; stress floor $814.32 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 11.4x is 1.5x the 7.6x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.70 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 0.55 (median of 20 S&P 500 Energy companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.63 (50% own, 50% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 (0.67 × 0.63 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.50% |
Free cash flow grows 28.62% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.36bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 28.62% | $15.89bn | 0.9216 | $14.65bn |
| Year 2 | 28.62% | $20.44bn | 0.8494 | $17.36bn |
| Year 3 | 28.62% | $26.30bn | 0.7828 | $20.58bn |
| Year 4 | 28.62% | $33.82bn | 0.7214 | $24.40bn |
| Year 5 | 28.62% | $43.50bn | 0.6649 | $28.92bn |
| Year 6 | 24.35% | $54.09bn | 0.6128 | $33.15bn |
| Year 7 | 20.08% | $64.95bn | 0.5647 | $36.68bn |
| Year 8 | 15.81% | $75.22bn | 0.5205 | $39.15bn |
| Year 9 | 11.54% | $83.90bn | 0.4797 | $40.25bn |
| Year 10 | 7.27% | $90.00bn | 0.4421 | $39.79bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.50% − 3%) | $1.68tn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $744.47bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $294.94bn |
| Total present value | $1.04tn |
| Shares outstanding | 398.95m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $2,605.33 |
| Plus net cash per share | $0.09 |
| Value per share | $2,605.42 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 23.62% | Growth 28.62% | Growth 33.62% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | $2,470.80 | $3,286.08 | $4,339.16 |
| 8.50% | $1,967.49 | $2,605.42 | $3,427.60 |
| 9.50% | $1,621.65 | $2,138.29 | $2,802.70 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.70 | 8.28% | $2,735.61 |
| Peer beta | 0.55 | 7.61% | $3,204.43 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.75 | 8.50% | $2,605.42 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,605.42 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $2,605.42
Base value $2,605.42 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $172.36 and a 10% chance it is above $419.53 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $262.91, from 34.53% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.5% a year.
At $262.91 the price implies free cash flow growing -9.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 28.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $264.58 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $278.18 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $293.17 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $283.18 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $282.83 | $563.60 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $245.72 | $148.82 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $262.91 | $2,605.42 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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