We publish no single base value for PTC Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $23.95 and $75.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $23.95 | -87.8% | free cash flow $872.66m, growth -24.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; stress floor $39.53 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $75.13 | -61.7% | earnings per share $9.02 valued at 28.66× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.93 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 1.25 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.09 (50% own, 50% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.09 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows -24.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $872.66m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -24.70% | $657.11m | 0.9099 | $597.92m |
| Year 2 | -24.70% | $494.81m | 0.8280 | $409.68m |
| Year 3 | -24.70% | $372.59m | 0.7534 | $280.70m |
| Year 4 | -24.70% | $280.56m | 0.6855 | $192.32m |
| Year 5 | -24.70% | $211.26m | 0.6238 | $131.77m |
| Year 6 | -20.08% | $168.83m | 0.5676 | $95.82m |
| Year 7 | -15.47% | $142.72m | 0.5164 | $73.71m |
| Year 8 | -10.85% | $127.24m | 0.4699 | $59.79m |
| Year 9 | -6.23% | $119.30m | 0.4276 | $51.01m |
| Year 10 | -1.62% | $117.38m | 0.3891 | $45.67m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $1.75bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $681.69m |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $1.94bn |
| Total present value | $2.62bn |
| Shares outstanding | 109.40m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $23.95 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -29.7% | Growth -24.7% | Growth -19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $19.83 | $26.23 | $35.09 |
| 9.90% | $18.36 | $23.95 | $31.58 |
| 10.90% | $17.22 | $22.19 | $28.91 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $25.20 |
| Peer beta | 1.25 | 10.75% | $22.42 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $23.95 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.02 |
| Year 1 | -24.70% | $6.79 |
| Year 2 | -17.77% | $5.59 |
| Year 3 | -12.58% | $4.88 |
| Year 4 | -8.69% | $4.46 |
| Year 5 | -5.76% | $4.20 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.20 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 28.66× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $120.45 |
| Discounted at 9.90% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6032 | $75.13 |
We publish no single base value for PTC Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $23.95 and $75.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $75.62 and a 10% chance it is above $402.84 in a year; a 44% chance it is higher than today's $196.25, from 64.93% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $196.25 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -24.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $144.03 | $87.66 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $194.45 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $192.98 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $193.80 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $195.54 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $195.07 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $196.25 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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