We publish no single base value for Qualcomm. Our valuation methods put it between $49.85 and $62.20 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $49.85 | -71.9% | free cash flow $8.65bn, growth -8.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.84%; stress floor $52.40 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $62.20 | -64.9% | earnings per share $9.59 valued at 13.47× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.70 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.31) |
| Peer beta | 1.83 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.73 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.49 (0.67 × 1.73 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.84% |
Free cash flow grows -8.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.65bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -8.40% | $7.92bn | 0.8942 | $7.09bn |
| Year 2 | -8.40% | $7.26bn | 0.7995 | $5.80bn |
| Year 3 | -8.40% | $6.65bn | 0.7149 | $4.75bn |
| Year 4 | -8.40% | $6.09bn | 0.6393 | $3.89bn |
| Year 5 | -8.40% | $5.58bn | 0.5716 | $3.19bn |
| Year 6 | -6.50% | $5.22bn | 0.5111 | $2.67bn |
| Year 7 | -4.60% | $4.98bn | 0.4570 | $2.27bn |
| Year 8 | -2.70% | $4.84bn | 0.4087 | $1.98bn |
| Year 9 | -0.80% | $4.80bn | 0.3654 | $1.76bn |
| Year 10 | 1.10% | $4.86bn | 0.3268 | $1.59bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.84% − 3%) | $56.61bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $18.50bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $34.99bn |
| Total present value | $53.48bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.07bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $49.85 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -13.4% | Growth -8.4% | Growth -3.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.84% | $41.55 | $55.11 | $73.36 |
| 11.84% | $37.96 | $49.85 | $65.74 |
| 12.84% | $35.05 | $45.61 | $59.65 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.70 | 12.78% | $45.82 |
| Peer beta | 1.83 | 13.36% | $43.68 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.49 | 11.84% | $49.85 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.59 |
| Year 1 | -8.40% | $8.78 |
| Year 2 | -4.98% | $8.35 |
| Year 3 | -2.59% | $8.13 |
| Year 4 | -0.91% | $8.06 |
| Year 5 | 0.26% | $8.08 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.08 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.47× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $108.81 |
| Discounted at 11.84% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7494 | $62.20 |
We publish no single base value for Qualcomm. Our valuation methods put it between $49.85 and $62.20 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $89.16 and a 10% chance it is above $338.21 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $177.14, from 51.75% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.84% a year.
At $177.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 14.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -8.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $184.87 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $175.50 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $172.11 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $175.91 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $164.79 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $165.41 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $177.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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