We publish no single base value for Royal Caribbean Group. Our valuation methods put it between $90.82 and $255.53 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $90.82 | -71.8% | free cash flow $1.51bn, growth 8.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.84%; stress floor $57.70 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $255.53 | -20.6% | earnings per share $17.93 valued at 18.45× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.88 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.35) |
| Peer beta | 1.26 (median of 7 S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.73 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.49 (0.67 × 1.73 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.84% |
Free cash flow grows 8.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.51bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 8.80% | $1.64bn | 0.8942 | $1.47bn |
| Year 2 | 8.80% | $1.79bn | 0.7995 | $1.43bn |
| Year 3 | 8.80% | $1.94bn | 0.7149 | $1.39bn |
| Year 4 | 8.80% | $2.12bn | 0.6393 | $1.35bn |
| Year 5 | 8.80% | $2.30bn | 0.5716 | $1.32bn |
| Year 6 | 7.83% | $2.48bn | 0.5111 | $1.27bn |
| Year 7 | 6.87% | $2.65bn | 0.4570 | $1.21bn |
| Year 8 | 5.90% | $2.81bn | 0.4087 | $1.15bn |
| Year 9 | 4.93% | $2.95bn | 0.3654 | $1.08bn |
| Year 10 | 3.97% | $3.06bn | 0.3268 | $1.00bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.84% − 3%) | $35.73bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.68bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.67bn |
| Total present value | $24.34bn |
| Shares outstanding | 268.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $90.82 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 3.8% | Growth 8.8% | Growth 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.84% | $77.55 | $103.26 | $137.14 |
| 11.84% | $68.69 | $90.82 | — |
| 12.84% | $61.64 | $80.95 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.88 | 13.59% | $74.75 |
| Peer beta | 1.26 | 10.80% | $103.76 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.49 | 11.84% | $90.82 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $17.93 |
| Year 1 | 8.80% | $19.51 |
| Year 2 | 7.06% | $20.89 |
| Year 3 | 5.84% | $22.11 |
| Year 4 | 4.99% | $23.21 |
| Year 5 | 4.39% | $24.23 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $24.23 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.45× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $447.03 |
| Discounted at 11.84% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7494 | $255.53 |
We publish no single base value for Royal Caribbean Group. Our valuation methods put it between $90.82 and $255.53 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $197.71 and a 10% chance it is above $560.39 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $321.99, from 40.44% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.84% a year.
At $321.99 the price implies free cash flow growing 32.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 8.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $277.74 | $230.60 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $282.26 | $228.69 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $277.68 | $243.10 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $276.48 | $243.94 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $307.18 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $327.16 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $321.99 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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