On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Reddit is $933.35 a share, 837.6% above its $99.55 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $933.35 | +837.6% | free cash flow $1.20bn, growth 53% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.15%; plus net cash $14.87 a share; stress floor $203.01 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.27 (data provider's figure) |
| Peer beta | 0.97 (median of 20 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.84 (67% own, 33% peers, two-thirds own, one-third peers) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.56 (0.67 × 1.84 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.15% |
Free cash flow grows 53.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.20bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 53.00% | $1.83bn | 0.8917 | $1.63bn |
| Year 2 | 53.00% | $2.80bn | 0.7951 | $2.23bn |
| Year 3 | 53.00% | $4.29bn | 0.7089 | $3.04bn |
| Year 4 | 53.00% | $6.57bn | 0.6321 | $4.15bn |
| Year 5 | 53.00% | $10.05bn | 0.5636 | $5.66bn |
| Year 6 | 44.67% | $14.53bn | 0.5026 | $7.30bn |
| Year 7 | 36.33% | $19.81bn | 0.4481 | $8.88bn |
| Year 8 | 28.00% | $25.36bn | 0.3996 | $10.13bn |
| Year 9 | 19.67% | $30.35bn | 0.3563 | $10.81bn |
| Year 10 | 11.33% | $33.79bn | 0.3177 | $10.73bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.15% − 3%) | $380.32bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $120.83bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $64.58bn |
| Total present value | $185.40bn |
| Shares outstanding | 201.86m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $918.48 |
| Plus net cash per share | $14.87 |
| Value per share | $933.35 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 48% | Growth 53% | Growth 58% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.15% | $857.96 | $1,090.53 | $1,379.91 |
| 12.15% | $736.37 | $933.35 | $1,178.14 |
| 13.15% | $640.35 | $809.35 | $1,019.10 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.27 | 15.34% | $613.33 |
| Peer beta | 0.97 | 9.50% | $1,465.32 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.56 | 12.15% | $933.35 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $933.35 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $933.35
Base value $933.35 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $23.81 and a 10% chance it is above $236.39 in a year; a 38% chance it is higher than today's $99.55, from 89.1% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.15% a year.
At $99.55 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 53.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $147.86 | $209.50 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $159.91 | $208.25 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $156.14 | $1,247.39 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $144.25 | $1,264.24 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $91.73 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $95.10 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $99.55 | $933.35 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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