We publish no single base value for ResMed. Our valuation methods put it between $279.84 and $412.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $412.13 | +72.5% | free cash flow $2.85bn, growth 5.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.96%; plus net cash $2.79 a share; stress floor $259.27 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $279.84 | +17.1% | earnings per share $12.14 valued at 28.04× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.77 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.78 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.77 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.85 (0.67 × 0.77 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.96% |
Free cash flow grows 5.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.85bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $3.02bn | 0.9178 | $2.77bn |
| Year 2 | 5.90% | $3.19bn | 0.8424 | $2.69bn |
| Year 3 | 5.90% | $3.38bn | 0.7731 | $2.62bn |
| Year 4 | 5.90% | $3.58bn | 0.7096 | $2.54bn |
| Year 5 | 5.90% | $3.79bn | 0.6513 | $2.47bn |
| Year 6 | 5.42% | $4.00bn | 0.5977 | $2.39bn |
| Year 7 | 4.93% | $4.20bn | 0.5486 | $2.30bn |
| Year 8 | 4.45% | $4.38bn | 0.5035 | $2.21bn |
| Year 9 | 3.97% | $4.56bn | 0.4621 | $2.11bn |
| Year 10 | 3.48% | $4.72bn | 0.4242 | $2.00bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.96% − 3%) | $81.58bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $34.60bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $24.10bn |
| Total present value | $58.70bn |
| Shares outstanding | 143.41m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $409.34 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.79 |
| Value per share | $412.13 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.9% | Growth 5.9% | Growth 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.96% | $364.92 | $497.17 | $674.27 |
| 8.96% | $305.28 | $412.13 | — |
| 9.96% | $262.73 | $351.63 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $439.23 |
| Peer beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $435.65 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.85 | 8.96% | $412.13 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.14 |
| Year 1 | 5.90% | $12.86 |
| Year 2 | 5.18% | $13.52 |
| Year 3 | 4.63% | $14.15 |
| Year 4 | 4.22% | $14.75 |
| Year 5 | 3.92% | $15.32 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.32 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 28.04× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $429.69 |
| Discounted at 8.96% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5355 | $279.84 |
We publish no single base value for ResMed. Our valuation methods put it between $279.84 and $412.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $163.54 and a 10% chance it is above $374.39 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $238.89, from 32.15% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.96% a year.
At $238.89 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $218.89 | $285.45 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $230.05 | $297.65 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $238.97 | $285.45 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $252.86 | $305.74 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $229.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $235.30 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $238.89 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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