We publish no single base value for Rockwell Automation. Our valuation methods put it between $171.35 and $265.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $171.35 | -57.6% | free cash flow $1.70bn, growth 0.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.07%; stress floor $135.68 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $265.13 | -34.4% | earnings per share $14.98 valued at 27.65× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.51 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.23 (median of 5 S&P 500 Electrical Components & Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.48 (92% own, 8% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.32 (0.67 × 1.48 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.07% |
Free cash flow grows 0.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.70bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.70% | $1.71bn | 0.9003 | $1.54bn |
| Year 2 | 0.70% | $1.72bn | 0.8106 | $1.40bn |
| Year 3 | 0.70% | $1.74bn | 0.7298 | $1.27bn |
| Year 4 | 0.70% | $1.75bn | 0.6571 | $1.15bn |
| Year 5 | 0.70% | $1.76bn | 0.5916 | $1.04bn |
| Year 6 | 1.08% | $1.78bn | 0.5326 | $948.31m |
| Year 7 | 1.47% | $1.81bn | 0.4795 | $866.32m |
| Year 8 | 1.85% | $1.84bn | 0.4317 | $794.40m |
| Year 9 | 2.23% | $1.88bn | 0.3887 | $731.20m |
| Year 10 | 2.62% | $1.93bn | 0.3500 | $675.55m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.07% − 3%) | $24.64bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.62bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.42bn |
| Total present value | $19.04bn |
| Shares outstanding | 111.10m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $171.35 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.3% | Growth 0.7% | Growth 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.07% | $145.18 | $194.86 | $261.28 |
| 11.07% | $128.82 | $171.35 | $227.95 |
| 12.07% | $115.99 | $153.00 | $202.02 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.51 | 11.93% | $155.41 |
| Peer beta | 1.23 | 10.66% | $180.14 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.32 | 11.07% | $171.35 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $14.98 |
| Year 1 | 0.70% | $15.08 |
| Year 2 | 1.28% | $15.27 |
| Year 3 | 1.71% | $15.53 |
| Year 4 | 2.03% | $15.85 |
| Year 5 | 2.27% | $16.21 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $16.21 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 27.65× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $448.17 |
| Discounted at 11.07% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6904 | $265.13 |
We publish no single base value for Rockwell Automation. Our valuation methods put it between $171.35 and $265.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $255.41 and a 10% chance it is above $684.93 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $404.20, from 38.29% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.07% a year.
At $404.20 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $454.35 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $432.59 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $426.23 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $426.11 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $436.20 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $375.86 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $404.20 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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