We publish no single base value for Ross Stores. Our valuation methods put it between $199.89 and $261.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $261.45 | +10.2% | free cash flow $2.79bn, growth 13.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.32%; stress floor $132.68 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $199.89 | -15.7% | earnings per share $8.80 valued at 23.38× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.84 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.90 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.93 (0.67 × 0.90 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.32% |
Free cash flow grows 13.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.79bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.30% | $3.16bn | 0.9148 | $2.89bn |
| Year 2 | 13.30% | $3.58bn | 0.8368 | $3.00bn |
| Year 3 | 13.30% | $4.06bn | 0.7655 | $3.11bn |
| Year 4 | 13.30% | $4.60bn | 0.7003 | $3.22bn |
| Year 5 | 13.30% | $5.21bn | 0.6406 | $3.34bn |
| Year 6 | 11.58% | $5.81bn | 0.5860 | $3.41bn |
| Year 7 | 9.87% | $6.39bn | 0.5361 | $3.42bn |
| Year 8 | 8.15% | $6.91bn | 0.4904 | $3.39bn |
| Year 9 | 6.43% | $7.35bn | 0.4486 | $3.30bn |
| Year 10 | 4.72% | $7.70bn | 0.4104 | $3.16bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.32% − 3%) | $125.55bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $51.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $32.23bn |
| Total present value | $83.75bn |
| Shares outstanding | 320.34m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $261.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.3% | Growth 13.3% | Growth 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.32% | — | $315.46 | $423.71 |
| 9.32% | — | $261.45 | $349.11 |
| 10.32% | $166.85 | $222.40 | $295.28 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $281.09 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $227.38 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.93 | 9.32% | $261.45 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.80 |
| Year 1 | 13.30% | $9.97 |
| Year 2 | 10.21% | $10.99 |
| Year 3 | 8.05% | $11.88 |
| Year 4 | 6.53% | $12.65 |
| Year 5 | 5.47% | $13.35 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $13.35 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.38× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $312.02 |
| Discounted at 9.32% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5610 | $199.89 |
We publish no single base value for Ross Stores. Our valuation methods put it between $199.89 and $261.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $173.40 and a 10% chance it is above $359.30 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $237.24, from 28.28% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.32% a year.
At $237.24 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $228.54 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $222.41 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $236.89 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $229.30 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $228.28 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $231.09 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $237.24 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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