We publish no single base value for Republic Services. Our valuation methods put it between $176.32 and $243.04 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $243.04 | -3.9% | free cash flow $3.31bn, growth 4.45% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.01%; stress floor $151.66 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $176.32 | -30.3% | earnings per share $7.28 valued at 29.56× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.32 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.46 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.64 (0.67 × 0.46 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.01% |
Free cash flow grows 4.45% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.31bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.45% | $3.46bn | 0.9258 | $3.20bn |
| Year 2 | 4.45% | $3.61bn | 0.8572 | $3.10bn |
| Year 3 | 4.45% | $3.77bn | 0.7936 | $2.99bn |
| Year 4 | 4.45% | $3.94bn | 0.7348 | $2.90bn |
| Year 5 | 4.45% | $4.12bn | 0.6803 | $2.80bn |
| Year 6 | 4.21% | $4.29bn | 0.6298 | $2.70bn |
| Year 7 | 3.97% | $4.46bn | 0.5831 | $2.60bn |
| Year 8 | 3.73% | $4.63bn | 0.5399 | $2.50bn |
| Year 9 | 3.48% | $4.79bn | 0.4998 | $2.39bn |
| Year 10 | 3.24% | $4.94bn | 0.4628 | $2.29bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.01% − 3%) | $101.60bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $47.02bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $27.47bn |
| Total present value | $74.49bn |
| Shares outstanding | 306.48m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $243.04 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.55% | Growth 4.45% | Growth 9.45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.01% | $220.68 | $304.45 | $417.39 |
| 8.01% | $177.89 | $243.04 | — |
| 9.01% | $149.28 | $202.09 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.32 | 6.57% | $342.39 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $180.43 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.64 | 8.01% | $243.04 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.28 |
| Year 1 | 4.45% | $7.60 |
| Year 2 | 4.02% | $7.90 |
| Year 3 | 3.71% | $8.20 |
| Year 4 | 3.50% | $8.48 |
| Year 5 | 3.35% | $8.77 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.77 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 29.56× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $259.20 |
| Discounted at 8.01% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4700 | $176.32 |
We publish no single base value for Republic Services. Our valuation methods put it between $176.32 and $243.04 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $207.00 and a 10% chance it is above $347.41 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $253.00, from 20.1% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.01% a year.
At $253.00 the price implies free cash flow growing 5.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $209.56 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $216.88 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $231.54 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $240.45 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $244.04 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $246.85 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $253.00 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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