We publish no single base value for RTX Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $149.79 and $246.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $246.73 | +24.4% | free cash flow $9.13bn, growth 11.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $121.03 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $149.79 | -24.5% | earnings per share $7.70 valued at 19.94× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 11 S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (95% own, 5% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows 11.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.13bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.10% | $10.14bn | 0.9293 | $9.42bn |
| Year 2 | 11.10% | $11.27bn | 0.8636 | $9.73bn |
| Year 3 | 11.10% | $12.52bn | 0.8026 | $10.05bn |
| Year 4 | 11.10% | $13.91bn | 0.7459 | $10.37bn |
| Year 5 | 11.10% | $15.45bn | 0.6932 | $10.71bn |
| Year 6 | 9.75% | $16.96bn | 0.6442 | $10.92bn |
| Year 7 | 8.40% | $18.38bn | 0.5986 | $11.00bn |
| Year 8 | 7.05% | $19.68bn | 0.5563 | $10.95bn |
| Year 9 | 5.70% | $20.80bn | 0.5170 | $10.75bn |
| Year 10 | 4.35% | $21.70bn | 0.4805 | $10.43bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $485.39bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $233.22bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $104.33bn |
| Total present value | $337.55bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.37bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $246.73 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 6.1% | Growth 11.1% | Growth 16.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | — | $319.46 | $435.05 |
| 7.61% | — | $246.73 | $333.80 |
| 8.61% | $148.09 | $200.11 | $268.99 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.30 | 6.48% | $331.51 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $183.06 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $246.73 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.70 |
| Year 1 | 11.10% | $8.56 |
| Year 2 | 8.27% | $9.27 |
| Year 3 | 6.42% | $9.86 |
| Year 4 | 5.22% | $10.38 |
| Year 5 | 4.45% | $10.84 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.84 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.94× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $216.09 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $149.79 |
We publish no single base value for RTX Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $149.79 and $246.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $152.19 and a 10% chance it is above $282.93 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $198.36, from 24.07% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $198.36 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 11.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $184.68 | $134.57 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $185.97 | $134.54 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $193.92 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $191.01 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $199.80 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $189.53 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $198.36 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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