We publish no single base value for Starbucks. Our valuation methods put it between $34.01 and $56.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $34.01 | -68.3% | free cash flow $3.72bn, growth -4.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.27%; stress floor $30.08 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $56.08 | -47.7% | earnings per share $3.21 valued at 28.84× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.01 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 0.65 (median of 5 S&P 500 Restaurants companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.89 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.92 (0.67 × 0.89 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.27% |
Free cash flow grows -4.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.72bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.50% | $3.56bn | 0.9152 | $3.26bn |
| Year 2 | -4.50% | $3.40bn | 0.8375 | $2.85bn |
| Year 3 | -4.50% | $3.24bn | 0.7665 | $2.49bn |
| Year 4 | -4.50% | $3.10bn | 0.7014 | $2.17bn |
| Year 5 | -4.50% | $2.96bn | 0.6419 | $1.90bn |
| Year 6 | -3.25% | $2.86bn | 0.5875 | $1.68bn |
| Year 7 | -2.00% | $2.81bn | 0.5376 | $1.51bn |
| Year 8 | -0.75% | $2.78bn | 0.4920 | $1.37bn |
| Year 9 | 0.50% | $2.80bn | 0.4503 | $1.26bn |
| Year 10 | 1.75% | $2.85bn | 0.4121 | $1.17bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.27% − 3%) | $46.77bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $19.27bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $19.65bn |
| Total present value | $38.93bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.14bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $34.01 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.5% | Growth -4.5% | Growth 0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.27% | $29.14 | $39.87 | $54.48 |
| 9.27% | $25.15 | $34.01 | $46.00 |
| 10.27% | $22.23 | $29.74 | $39.84 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.01 | 9.68% | $32.13 |
| Peer beta | 0.65 | 8.05% | $41.43 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.92 | 9.27% | $34.01 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.21 |
| Year 1 | -4.50% | $3.07 |
| Year 2 | -2.25% | $3.00 |
| Year 3 | -0.67% | $2.98 |
| Year 4 | 0.43% | $2.99 |
| Year 5 | 1.20% | $3.03 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.03 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 28.84× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $87.36 |
| Discounted at 9.27% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5578 | $56.08 |
We publish no single base value for Starbucks. Our valuation methods put it between $34.01 and $56.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $81.15 and a 10% chance it is above $158.76 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $107.26, from 26.05% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.27% a year.
At $107.26 the price implies free cash flow growing 14.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $94.71 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $90.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $97.52 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $100.80 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $103.67 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $105.41 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $107.26 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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