We publish no single base value for Sherwin-Williams. Our valuation methods put it between $261.06 and $297.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $261.06 | -25.7% | free cash flow $3.08bn, growth 7.03% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.36%; stress floor $160.80 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $297.12 | -15.4% | earnings per share $12.03 valued at 29.94× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.04 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.86 (median of 5 S&P 500 Specialty Chemicals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.91 (24% own, 76% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.94 (0.67 × 0.91 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.36% |
Free cash flow grows 7.03% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.08bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 7.03% | $3.29bn | 0.9144 | $3.01bn |
| Year 2 | 7.03% | $3.53bn | 0.8361 | $2.95bn |
| Year 3 | 7.03% | $3.77bn | 0.7646 | $2.89bn |
| Year 4 | 7.03% | $4.04bn | 0.6991 | $2.82bn |
| Year 5 | 7.03% | $4.32bn | 0.6393 | $2.76bn |
| Year 6 | 6.36% | $4.60bn | 0.5846 | $2.69bn |
| Year 7 | 5.69% | $4.86bn | 0.5346 | $2.60bn |
| Year 8 | 5.02% | $5.10bn | 0.4888 | $2.49bn |
| Year 9 | 4.34% | $5.32bn | 0.4470 | $2.38bn |
| Year 10 | 3.67% | $5.52bn | 0.4087 | $2.26bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.36% − 3%) | $89.40bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $36.54bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $26.85bn |
| Total present value | $63.39bn |
| Shares outstanding | 242.80m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $261.06 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 2.03% | Growth 7.03% | Growth 12.03% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.36% | $229.45 | — | $421.72 |
| 9.36% | $193.70 | $261.06 | $350.57 |
| 10.36% | $167.65 | $224.18 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.04 | 9.81% | $243.11 |
| Peer beta | 0.86 | 9.00% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.94 | 9.36% | $261.06 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.03 |
| Year 1 | 7.03% | $12.88 |
| Year 2 | 5.82% | $13.63 |
| Year 3 | 4.97% | $14.30 |
| Year 4 | 4.38% | $14.93 |
| Year 5 | 3.97% | $15.52 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.52 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 29.94× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $464.76 |
| Discounted at 9.36% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5642 | $297.12 |
We publish no single base value for Sherwin-Williams. Our valuation methods put it between $261.06 and $297.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $244.20 and a 10% chance it is above $549.34 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $351.39, from 31.47% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.36% a year.
At $351.39 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 7.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $319.51 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $319.36 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $335.20 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $337.06 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $332.61 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $344.10 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $351.39 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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