We publish no single base value for J.M. Smucker Company (The). Our valuation methods put it between $111.54 and $391.66 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $391.66 | +197.4% | free cash flow $1.59bn, growth 5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.42%; stress floor $230.76 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $111.54 | -15.3% | earnings per share $10.77 valued at 12.17× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.26 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.27 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.26 (57% own, 43% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.51 (0.67 × 0.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.42% |
Free cash flow grows 5.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.59bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $1.67bn | 0.9309 | $1.55bn |
| Year 2 | 5.00% | $1.75bn | 0.8665 | $1.52bn |
| Year 3 | 5.00% | $1.84bn | 0.8066 | $1.48bn |
| Year 4 | 5.00% | $1.93bn | 0.7509 | $1.45bn |
| Year 5 | 5.00% | $2.03bn | 0.6990 | $1.42bn |
| Year 6 | 4.67% | $2.12bn | 0.6507 | $1.38bn |
| Year 7 | 4.33% | $2.21bn | 0.6057 | $1.34bn |
| Year 8 | 4.00% | $2.30bn | 0.5638 | $1.30bn |
| Year 9 | 3.67% | $2.39bn | 0.5249 | $1.25bn |
| Year 10 | 3.33% | $2.47bn | 0.4886 | $1.21bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.42% − 3%) | $57.41bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $28.05bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.90bn |
| Total present value | $41.95bn |
| Shares outstanding | 107.10m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $391.66 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0% | Growth 5% | Growth 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.42% | $366.25 | — | $699.22 |
| 7.42% | $285.23 | $391.66 | $534.75 |
| 8.43% | $234.00 | $318.33 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.26 | 6.30% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.27 | 6.34% | — |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.51 | 7.42% | $391.66 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.77 |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $11.31 |
| Year 2 | 4.30% | $11.80 |
| Year 3 | 3.85% | $12.25 |
| Year 4 | 3.55% | $12.69 |
| Year 5 | 3.36% | $13.11 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $13.11 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.17× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $159.57 |
| Discounted at 7.42% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4306 | $111.54 |
We publish no single base value for J.M. Smucker Company (The). Our valuation methods put it between $111.54 and $391.66 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $96.90 and a 10% chance it is above $192.58 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $131.71, from 26.66% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.42% a year.
At $131.71 the price implies free cash flow growing -12.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $117.19 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $119.83 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $127.43 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $129.98 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $129.90 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $130.55 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $131.71 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on SJM · J.M. Smucker Company (The) company page · Call and put prices