On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Skydance is $4.91 a share, 35.3% below its $7.59 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $4.91 | -35.3% | free cash flow $456.00m, growth 0.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.53%; stress floor $3.81 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.64 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.41) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.30 (51% own, 49% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.20 (0.67 × 1.30 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.53% |
Free cash flow grows 0.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $456.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.90% | $460.10m | 0.9047 | $416.27m |
| Year 2 | 0.90% | $464.24m | 0.8185 | $380.00m |
| Year 3 | 0.90% | $468.42m | 0.7406 | $346.89m |
| Year 4 | 0.90% | $472.64m | 0.6700 | $316.67m |
| Year 5 | 0.90% | $476.89m | 0.6062 | $289.08m |
| Year 6 | 1.25% | $482.85m | 0.5484 | $264.81m |
| Year 7 | 1.60% | $490.58m | 0.4962 | $243.42m |
| Year 8 | 1.95% | $500.15m | 0.4489 | $224.52m |
| Year 9 | 2.30% | $511.65m | 0.4061 | $207.80m |
| Year 10 | 2.65% | $525.21m | 0.3675 | $192.99m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.53% − 3%) | $7.18bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $2.64bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $2.88bn |
| Total present value | $5.52bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.12bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $4.91 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.1% | Growth 0.9% | Growth 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.53% | $4.18 | $5.64 | $7.60 |
| 10.53% | $3.67 | $4.91 | $6.56 |
| 11.53% | $3.28 | $4.35 | $5.76 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.64 | 12.51% | $3.91 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $5.83 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.20 | 10.53% | $4.91 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $4.91 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $4.91
Base value $4.91 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $2.31 and a 10% chance it is above $16.79 in a year; a 40% chance it is higher than today's $7.59, from 76.96% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.53% a year.
At $7.59 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | $6.91 | $4.68 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $7.77 | $4.73 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $7.95 | $4.88 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $8.01 | $4.93 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $7.59 | $4.91 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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