We publish no single base value for Snap-on. Our valuation methods put it between $176.40 and $253.52 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $253.52 | -31.1% | free cash flow $1.01bn, growth -1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.36%; plus net cash $7.50 a share; stress floor $202.67 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $176.40 | -52.1% | earnings per share $19.14 valued at 13.87× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.75 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 1.00 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.91 (36% own, 64% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.94 (0.67 × 0.91 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.36% |
Free cash flow grows -1.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.01bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.00% | $1.00bn | 0.9144 | $916.22m |
| Year 2 | -1.00% | $991.96m | 0.8361 | $829.42m |
| Year 3 | -1.00% | $982.04m | 0.7646 | $750.85m |
| Year 4 | -1.00% | $972.22m | 0.6991 | $679.72m |
| Year 5 | -1.00% | $962.50m | 0.6393 | $615.33m |
| Year 6 | -0.33% | $959.29m | 0.5846 | $560.79m |
| Year 7 | 0.33% | $962.49m | 0.5346 | $514.50m |
| Year 8 | 1.00% | $972.11m | 0.4888 | $475.17m |
| Year 9 | 1.67% | $988.31m | 0.4470 | $441.74m |
| Year 10 | 2.33% | $1.01bn | 0.4087 | $413.36m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.36% − 3%) | $16.38bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $6.69bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $6.20bn |
| Total present value | $12.89bn |
| Shares outstanding | 52.40m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $246.02 |
| Plus net cash per share | $7.50 |
| Value per share | $253.52 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6% | Growth -1% | Growth 4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.36% | $219.67 | $297.27 | $402.22 |
| 9.36% | $189.54 | $253.52 | $339.59 |
| 10.36% | $167.46 | $221.58 | $294.00 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.75 | 8.50% | $289.95 |
| Peer beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $243.95 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.94 | 9.36% | $253.52 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.14 |
| Year 1 | -1.00% | $18.95 |
| Year 2 | 0.20% | $18.99 |
| Year 3 | 1.04% | $19.18 |
| Year 4 | 1.63% | $19.50 |
| Year 5 | 2.04% | $19.89 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $19.89 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.87× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $275.92 |
| Discounted at 9.36% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5642 | $176.40 |
We publish no single base value for Snap-on. Our valuation methods put it between $176.40 and $253.52 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $329.15 and a 10% chance it is above $483.68 in a year; a 71% chance it is higher than today's $367.89, from 14.94% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.36% a year.
At $367.89 the price implies free cash flow growing 5.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $368.90 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $360.37 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $367.25 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $357.02 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $355.66 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $367.22 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $367.89 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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