On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Synopsys is $1,809.76 a share, 291.1% above its $462.69 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,809.76 | +291.1% | free cash flow $2.79bn, growth 42.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.26%; stress floor $437.60 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 41.6x is 1.7x the 24.8x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.18 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.25 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.21 (64% own, 36% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.14 (0.67 × 1.21 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.26% |
Free cash flow grows 42.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.79bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 42.40% | $3.97bn | 0.9069 | $3.60bn |
| Year 2 | 42.40% | $5.66bn | 0.8226 | $4.65bn |
| Year 3 | 42.40% | $8.06bn | 0.7460 | $6.01bn |
| Year 4 | 42.40% | $11.47bn | 0.6766 | $7.76bn |
| Year 5 | 42.40% | $16.34bn | 0.6136 | $10.02bn |
| Year 6 | 35.83% | $22.19bn | 0.5565 | $12.35bn |
| Year 7 | 29.27% | $28.68bn | 0.5047 | $14.48bn |
| Year 8 | 22.70% | $35.19bn | 0.4578 | $16.11bn |
| Year 9 | 16.13% | $40.87bn | 0.4152 | $16.97bn |
| Year 10 | 9.57% | $44.78bn | 0.3765 | $16.86bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.26% − 3%) | $635.33bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $239.23bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $108.82bn |
| Total present value | $348.05bn |
| Shares outstanding | 192.32m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $1,809.76 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 37.4% | Growth 42.4% | Growth 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.26% | $1,681.63 | $2,182.29 | $2,814.75 |
| 10.26% | $1,398.60 | $1,809.76 | $2,328.33 |
| 11.26% | $1,186.83 | $1,531.32 | $1,965.11 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.18 | 10.44% | $1,753.81 |
| Peer beta | 1.25 | 10.75% | $1,662.46 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.14 | 10.26% | $1,809.76 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,809.76 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $1,809.76
Base value $1,809.76 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $219.79 and a 10% chance it is above $884.80 in a year; a 47% chance it is higher than today's $462.69, from 54.06% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.26% a year.
At $462.69 the price implies free cash flow growing 17.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 42.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $489.90 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $509.99 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $454.63 | $1,767.53 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $430.14 | $1,793.61 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $467.61 | $1,859.00 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $450.46 | $1,881.55 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $462.69 | $1,809.76 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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