We publish no single base value for Steel Dynamics. Our valuation methods put it between $223.36 and $411.91 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $411.91 | +73.7% | free cash flow $1.09bn, growth 26% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.08%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $223.36 | -5.8% | earnings per share $17.50 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.45 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.27) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.14 (47% own, 53% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.10 (0.67 × 1.14 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.08% |
Free cash flow grows 26.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.09bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 26.00% | $1.38bn | 0.9084 | $1.25bn |
| Year 2 | 26.00% | $1.74bn | 0.8252 | $1.43bn |
| Year 3 | 26.00% | $2.19bn | 0.7497 | $1.64bn |
| Year 4 | 26.00% | $2.76bn | 0.6810 | $1.88bn |
| Year 5 | 26.00% | $3.48bn | 0.6187 | $2.15bn |
| Year 6 | 22.17% | $4.25bn | 0.5620 | $2.39bn |
| Year 7 | 18.33% | $5.03bn | 0.5106 | $2.57bn |
| Year 8 | 14.50% | $5.76bn | 0.4638 | $2.67bn |
| Year 9 | 10.67% | $6.37bn | 0.4213 | $2.68bn |
| Year 10 | 6.83% | $6.80bn | 0.3828 | $2.60bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.08% − 3%) | $98.99bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $37.89bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $21.27bn |
| Total present value | $59.16bn |
| Shares outstanding | 143.62m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $411.91 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 21% | Growth 26% | Growth 31% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.08% | $372.21 | $493.27 | $649.68 |
| 10.08% | $312.24 | $411.91 | $540.38 |
| 11.08% | $267.49 | $351.28 | $459.04 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.45 | 11.65% | $323.00 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $492.32 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.10 | 10.08% | $411.91 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $17.50 |
| Year 1 | 26.00% | $22.04 |
| Year 2 | 19.10% | $26.26 |
| Year 3 | 14.27% | $30.00 |
| Year 4 | 10.89% | $33.27 |
| Year 5 | 8.52% | $36.10 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $36.10 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $361.04 |
| Discounted at 10.08% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6164 | $223.36 |
We publish no single base value for Steel Dynamics. Our valuation methods put it between $223.36 and $411.91 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $144.84 and a 10% chance it is above $402.89 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $237.11, from 39.71% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.08% a year.
At $237.11 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 26.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $231.99 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $238.38 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $240.54 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $241.53 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $250.80 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $222.90 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $237.11 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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