On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Seagate Technology is $1,768.02 a share, 224.3% above its $545.14 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,768.02 | +224.3% | free cash flow $4.17bn, growth 44.37% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.38%; stress floor $444.44 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 24.3x is 1.8x the 13.6x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.15 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.40) |
| Peer beta | 1.45 (median of 8 S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.91 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.61 (0.67 × 1.91 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.38% |
Free cash flow grows 44.37% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.17bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 44.37% | $6.02bn | 0.8899 | $5.35bn |
| Year 2 | 44.37% | $8.69bn | 0.7919 | $6.88bn |
| Year 3 | 44.37% | $12.54bn | 0.7047 | $8.84bn |
| Year 4 | 44.37% | $18.11bn | 0.6271 | $11.35bn |
| Year 5 | 44.37% | $26.14bn | 0.5580 | $14.59bn |
| Year 6 | 37.47% | $35.94bn | 0.4966 | $17.85bn |
| Year 7 | 30.58% | $46.93bn | 0.4419 | $20.74bn |
| Year 8 | 23.68% | $58.04bn | 0.3932 | $22.82bn |
| Year 9 | 16.79% | $67.79bn | 0.3499 | $23.72bn |
| Year 10 | 9.89% | $74.49bn | 0.3114 | $23.20bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.38% − 3%) | $818.43bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $254.85bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $155.33bn |
| Total present value | $410.18bn |
| Shares outstanding | 232.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $1,768.02 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 39.37% | Growth 44.37% | Growth 49.37% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.38% | $1,597.24 | $2,055.81 | $2,631.82 |
| 12.38% | $1,377.42 | $1,768.02 | $2,257.92 |
| 13.38% | $1,202.62 | $1,539.44 | $1,961.23 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.15 | 14.80% | $1,285.06 |
| Peer beta | 1.45 | 11.65% | $1,968.06 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.61 | 12.38% | $1,768.02 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,768.02 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $1,768.02
Base value $1,768.02 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $157.90 and a 10% chance it is above $1,248.72 in a year; a 40% chance it is higher than today's $545.14, from 80.27% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.38% a year.
At $545.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 21.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 44.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $848.99 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $783.00 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $639.01 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $630.49 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $644.58 | $1,819.15 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $460.99 | $1,837.17 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $545.14 | $1,768.02 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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