On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Constellation Brands is $146.16 a share, 1.1% above its $144.60 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $146.16 | +1.1% | free cash flow $1.84bn, growth -4.31% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.79%; stress floor $120.55 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 18.5x is 1.5x the 12.2x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.40 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.38 (62% own, 38% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.59 (0.67 × 0.38 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.79% |
Free cash flow grows -4.31% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.84bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.31% | $1.76bn | 0.9278 | $1.63bn |
| Year 2 | -4.31% | $1.68bn | 0.8608 | $1.45bn |
| Year 3 | -4.31% | $1.61bn | 0.7986 | $1.29bn |
| Year 4 | -4.31% | $1.54bn | 0.7409 | $1.14bn |
| Year 5 | -4.31% | $1.48bn | 0.6874 | $1.01bn |
| Year 6 | -3.09% | $1.43bn | 0.6377 | $912.00m |
| Year 7 | -1.87% | $1.40bn | 0.5917 | $830.28m |
| Year 8 | -0.65% | $1.39bn | 0.5490 | $765.27m |
| Year 9 | 0.56% | $1.40bn | 0.5093 | $713.99m |
| Year 10 | 1.78% | $1.43bn | 0.4725 | $674.23m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.79% − 3%) | $30.71bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.51bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.42bn |
| Total present value | $24.94bn |
| Shares outstanding | 170.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $146.16 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.31% | Growth -4.31% | Growth 0.69% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.79% | $130.40 | $181.88 | $252.58 |
| 7.79% | $106.19 | $146.16 | $200.71 |
| 8.79% | $90.23 | $122.69 | $166.73 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.40 | 6.93% | $175.58 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $183.47 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.59 | 7.79% | $146.16 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $146.16 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $146.16
Base value $146.16 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $95.26 and a 10% chance it is above $227.50 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $144.60, from 33.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.79% a year.
At $144.60 the price implies free cash flow growing -4.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $112.87 | $140.93 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $122.64 | $54.95 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $131.35 | $143.66 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $138.68 | $145.99 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $135.33 | $151.95 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $141.97 | $154.04 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $144.60 | $146.16 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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