On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Smurfit Westrock is $24.70 a share, 42.8% below its $43.18 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $24.70 | -42.8% | free cash flow $852.00m, growth 1.97% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.32%; stress floor $17.80 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.90 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.24) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.89 (56% own, 44% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.93 (0.67 × 0.89 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.32% |
Free cash flow grows 1.97% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $852.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.97% | $868.78m | 0.9148 | $794.75m |
| Year 2 | 1.97% | $885.90m | 0.8368 | $741.35m |
| Year 3 | 1.97% | $903.35m | 0.7655 | $691.54m |
| Year 4 | 1.97% | $921.15m | 0.7003 | $645.08m |
| Year 5 | 1.97% | $939.29m | 0.6406 | $601.73m |
| Year 6 | 2.14% | $959.41m | 0.5860 | $562.25m |
| Year 7 | 2.31% | $981.61m | 0.5361 | $526.23m |
| Year 8 | 2.48% | $1.01bn | 0.4904 | $493.35m |
| Year 9 | 2.66% | $1.03bn | 0.4486 | $463.30m |
| Year 10 | 2.83% | $1.06bn | 0.4104 | $435.81m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.32% − 3%) | $17.32bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $7.11bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $5.96bn |
| Total present value | $13.06bn |
| Shares outstanding | 529.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $24.70 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.03% | Growth 1.97% | Growth 6.97% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.32% | $21.46 | $29.29 | — |
| 9.32% | $18.27 | $24.70 | $33.30 |
| 10.32% | $15.95 | $21.36 | $28.57 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $25.23 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $25.60 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.93 | 9.32% | $24.70 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $24.70 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $24.70
Base value $24.70 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $30.06 and a 10% chance it is above $67.39 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $43.18, from 31.34% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.32% a year.
At $43.18 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $42.54 | $27.02 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $41.29 | $27.46 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $41.16 | $28.41 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $41.85 | $28.79 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $43.09 | $20.89 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $44.09 | $21.11 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $43.18 | $24.70 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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