We publish no single base value for Sysco. Our valuation methods put it between $68.15 and $88.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $88.24 | +15.7% | free cash flow $2.19bn, growth 2.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.23%; stress floor $58.87 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $68.15 | -10.6% | earnings per share $5.06 valued at 17.35× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.66 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.53 (57% own, 43% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.69 (0.67 × 0.53 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.23% |
Free cash flow grows 2.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.19bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.80% | $2.25bn | 0.9239 | $2.08bn |
| Year 2 | 2.80% | $2.32bn | 0.8536 | $1.98bn |
| Year 3 | 2.80% | $2.38bn | 0.7887 | $1.88bn |
| Year 4 | 2.80% | $2.45bn | 0.7287 | $1.78bn |
| Year 5 | 2.80% | $2.52bn | 0.6732 | $1.69bn |
| Year 6 | 2.83% | $2.59bn | 0.6220 | $1.61bn |
| Year 7 | 2.87% | $2.66bn | 0.5747 | $1.53bn |
| Year 8 | 2.90% | $2.74bn | 0.5310 | $1.46bn |
| Year 9 | 2.93% | $2.82bn | 0.4906 | $1.38bn |
| Year 10 | 2.97% | $2.90bn | 0.4532 | $1.32bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.23% − 3%) | $57.15bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $25.90bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.72bn |
| Total present value | $42.62bn |
| Shares outstanding | 482.95m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $88.24 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.2% | Growth 2.8% | Growth 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.23% | $79.08 | $109.04 | — |
| 8.23% | $64.65 | $88.24 | — |
| 9.23% | $54.82 | $74.12 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.66 | 8.10% | $90.58 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $123.12 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.69 | 8.23% | $88.24 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.06 |
| Year 1 | 2.80% | $5.20 |
| Year 2 | 2.86% | $5.35 |
| Year 3 | 2.90% | $5.51 |
| Year 4 | 2.93% | $5.67 |
| Year 5 | 2.95% | $5.83 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.83 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.35× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $101.23 |
| Discounted at 8.23% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4854 | $68.15 |
We publish no single base value for Sysco. Our valuation methods put it between $68.15 and $88.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $54.24 and a 10% chance it is above $115.39 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $76.24, from 29.3% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.23% a year.
At $76.24 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $77.49 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $78.14 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $82.22 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $81.37 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $82.90 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $76.86 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $76.24 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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