We publish no single base value for AT&T. Our valuation methods put it between $19.26 and $56.36 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $56.36 | +154.1% | free cash flow $17.85bn, growth 3.51% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.92%; stress floor $36.07 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $19.26 | -13.2% | earnings per share $2.40 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.3×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.29 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.00 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.43 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.62 (0.67 × 0.43 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.92% |
Free cash flow grows 3.51% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $17.85bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.51% | $18.47bn | 0.9266 | $17.12bn |
| Year 2 | 3.51% | $19.12bn | 0.8586 | $16.42bn |
| Year 3 | 3.51% | $19.79bn | 0.7956 | $15.75bn |
| Year 4 | 3.51% | $20.49bn | 0.7372 | $15.10bn |
| Year 5 | 3.51% | $21.21bn | 0.6831 | $14.49bn |
| Year 6 | 3.42% | $21.93bn | 0.6330 | $13.88bn |
| Year 7 | 3.34% | $22.67bn | 0.5865 | $13.29bn |
| Year 8 | 3.25% | $23.40bn | 0.5435 | $12.72bn |
| Year 9 | 3.17% | $24.15bn | 0.5036 | $12.16bn |
| Year 10 | 3.08% | $24.89bn | 0.4666 | $11.61bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.92% − 3%) | $521.08bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $243.16bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $142.54bn |
| Total present value | $385.70bn |
| Shares outstanding | 6.84bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $56.36 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.49% | Growth 3.51% | Growth 8.51% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.92% | $51.22 | $70.80 | — |
| 7.92% | $41.18 | $56.36 | — |
| 8.92% | $34.52 | $46.79 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.29 | 6.43% | $80.84 |
| Peer beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $41.76 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.62 | 7.92% | $56.36 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.40 |
| Year 1 | 3.51% | $2.48 |
| Year 2 | 3.38% | $2.56 |
| Year 3 | 3.29% | $2.65 |
| Year 4 | 3.22% | $2.73 |
| Year 5 | 3.16% | $2.82 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.82 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.3×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $28.19 |
| Discounted at 7.92% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4639 | $19.26 |
We publish no single base value for AT&T. Our valuation methods put it between $19.26 and $56.36 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $14.19 and a 10% chance it is above $35.56 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $22.18, from 35.67% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.92% a year.
At $22.18 the price implies free cash flow growing -11.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $24.30 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $22.18 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $23.44 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $20.93 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $21.41 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $21.63 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $22.18 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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