We publish no single base value for Target Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $119.04 and $173.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $173.44 | +7.8% | free cash flow $4.55bn, growth 1.95% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.55%; stress floor $120.92 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $119.04 | -26.0% | earnings per share $10.53 valued at 15.12× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.95 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.64 (48% own, 52% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.76 (0.67 × 0.64 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.55% |
Free cash flow grows 1.95% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.55bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.95% | $4.64bn | 0.9212 | $4.27bn |
| Year 2 | 1.95% | $4.73bn | 0.8487 | $4.01bn |
| Year 3 | 1.95% | $4.82bn | 0.7818 | $3.77bn |
| Year 4 | 1.95% | $4.92bn | 0.7202 | $3.54bn |
| Year 5 | 1.95% | $5.01bn | 0.6635 | $3.33bn |
| Year 6 | 2.12% | $5.12bn | 0.6113 | $3.13bn |
| Year 7 | 2.30% | $5.24bn | 0.5631 | $2.95bn |
| Year 8 | 2.48% | $5.37bn | 0.5188 | $2.78bn |
| Year 9 | 2.65% | $5.51bn | 0.4779 | $2.63bn |
| Year 10 | 2.83% | $5.66bn | 0.4403 | $2.49bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.55% − 3%) | $105.12bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $46.28bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $32.91bn |
| Total present value | $79.19bn |
| Shares outstanding | 456.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $173.44 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.05% | Growth 1.95% | Growth 6.95% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.55% | $153.52 | $211.14 | — |
| 8.55% | $127.40 | $173.44 | — |
| 9.55% | $109.19 | $147.23 | $198.13 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.95 | 9.40% | $150.52 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $255.77 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.76 | 8.55% | $173.44 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.53 |
| Year 1 | 1.95% | $10.73 |
| Year 2 | 2.27% | $10.98 |
| Year 3 | 2.49% | $11.25 |
| Year 4 | 2.64% | $11.55 |
| Year 5 | 2.75% | $11.87 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.87 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.12× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $179.40 |
| Discounted at 8.55% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5071 | $119.04 |
We publish no single base value for Target Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $119.04 and $173.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $109.08 and a 10% chance it is above $251.99 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $160.90, from 32.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.55% a year.
At $160.90 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $156.00 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $153.64 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $154.26 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $152.76 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $154.38 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $158.41 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $160.90 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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