We publish no single base value for TJX Companies. Our valuation methods put it between $112.11 and $116.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $112.11 | -17.6% | free cash flow $5.88bn, growth 5.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.59%; stress floor $70.11 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $116.92 | -14.0% | earnings per share $5.23 valued at 27.32× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.58 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.65 (87% own, 13% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 (0.67 × 0.65 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.59% |
Free cash flow grows 5.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.88bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.40% | $6.19bn | 0.9209 | $5.70bn |
| Year 2 | 5.40% | $6.53bn | 0.8480 | $5.54bn |
| Year 3 | 5.40% | $6.88bn | 0.7809 | $5.37bn |
| Year 4 | 5.40% | $7.25bn | 0.7191 | $5.21bn |
| Year 5 | 5.40% | $7.64bn | 0.6621 | $5.06bn |
| Year 6 | 5.00% | $8.03bn | 0.6097 | $4.89bn |
| Year 7 | 4.60% | $8.39bn | 0.5615 | $4.71bn |
| Year 8 | 4.20% | $8.75bn | 0.5170 | $4.52bn |
| Year 9 | 3.80% | $9.08bn | 0.4761 | $4.32bn |
| Year 10 | 3.40% | $9.39bn | 0.4384 | $4.12bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.59% − 3%) | $172.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $75.78bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $49.46bn |
| Total present value | $125.23bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.12bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $112.11 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.4% | Growth 5.4% | Growth 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.59% | $100.03 | $137.09 | $186.82 |
| 8.59% | $82.56 | $112.11 | — |
| 9.59% | $70.37 | $94.74 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.58 | 7.74% | $132.81 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $86.95 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.77 | 8.59% | $112.11 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.23 |
| Year 1 | 5.40% | $5.51 |
| Year 2 | 4.68% | $5.77 |
| Year 3 | 4.18% | $6.01 |
| Year 4 | 3.82% | $6.24 |
| Year 5 | 3.58% | $6.46 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.46 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 27.32× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $176.58 |
| Discounted at 8.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5103 | $116.92 |
We publish no single base value for TJX Companies. Our valuation methods put it between $112.11 and $116.92 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $101.09 and a 10% chance it is above $201.32 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $135.98, from 26.74% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.59% a year.
At $135.98 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $132.68 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $138.76 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $147.33 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $145.06 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $140.31 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $135.30 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $135.98 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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