We publish no single base value for TKO Group Holdings. Our valuation methods put it between $208.74 and $467.69 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $467.69 | +141.0% | free cash flow $1.72bn, growth 21.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.82%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $208.74 | +7.6% | earnings per share $4.89 valued at 36.6× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.66 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.24) |
| Peer beta | 1.00 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.74 (78% own, 22% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.82 (0.67 × 0.74 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.82% |
Free cash flow grows 21.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.72bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 21.50% | $2.09bn | 0.9189 | $1.92bn |
| Year 2 | 21.50% | $2.54bn | 0.8445 | $2.15bn |
| Year 3 | 21.50% | $3.09bn | 0.7760 | $2.40bn |
| Year 4 | 21.50% | $3.76bn | 0.7131 | $2.68bn |
| Year 5 | 21.50% | $4.56bn | 0.6553 | $2.99bn |
| Year 6 | 18.42% | $5.40bn | 0.6022 | $3.25bn |
| Year 7 | 15.33% | $6.23bn | 0.5534 | $3.45bn |
| Year 8 | 12.25% | $7.00bn | 0.5085 | $3.56bn |
| Year 9 | 9.17% | $7.64bn | 0.4673 | $3.57bn |
| Year 10 | 6.08% | $8.10bn | 0.4295 | $3.48bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.82% − 3%) | $143.39bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $61.58bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $29.45bn |
| Total present value | $91.03bn |
| Shares outstanding | 194.63m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $467.69 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 16.5% | Growth 21.5% | Growth 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.82% | $431.68 | $579.02 | $771.31 |
| 8.82% | $350.55 | $467.69 | $620.16 |
| 9.82% | $293.56 | $389.60 | $514.28 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.66 | 8.10% | $543.37 |
| Peer beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $402.58 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.82 | 8.82% | $467.69 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.89 |
| Year 1 | 21.50% | $5.94 |
| Year 2 | 15.03% | $6.84 |
| Year 3 | 10.82% | $7.57 |
| Year 4 | 8.08% | $8.19 |
| Year 5 | 6.30% | $8.70 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.70 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 36.6× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $318.52 |
| Discounted at 8.82% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5260 | $208.74 |
We publish no single base value for TKO Group Holdings. Our valuation methods put it between $208.74 and $467.69 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $135.21 and a 10% chance it is above $300.35 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $194.08, from 30.98% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.82% a year.
At $194.08 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 21.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $175.58 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $178.01 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $175.50 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $173.07 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $180.68 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $191.00 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $194.08 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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