We publish no single base value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $427.42 and $689.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $689.45 | +145.2% | free cash flow $569.09m, growth 25.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.74%; plus net cash $5.86 a share; stress floor $227.73 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $427.42 | +52.0% | earnings per share $9.28 valued at 34.62× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.58 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.42) |
| Peer beta | 0.35 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.38 (12% own, 88% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 (0.67 × 0.38 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.74% |
Free cash flow grows 25.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $569.09m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.30% | $713.07m | 0.9282 | $661.85m |
| Year 2 | 25.30% | $893.48m | 0.8615 | $769.72m |
| Year 3 | 25.30% | $1.12bn | 0.7996 | $895.17m |
| Year 4 | 25.30% | $1.40bn | 0.7422 | $1.04bn |
| Year 5 | 25.30% | $1.76bn | 0.6888 | $1.21bn |
| Year 6 | 21.58% | $2.14bn | 0.6393 | $1.37bn |
| Year 7 | 17.87% | $2.52bn | 0.5934 | $1.49bn |
| Year 8 | 14.15% | $2.88bn | 0.5508 | $1.58bn |
| Year 9 | 10.43% | $3.18bn | 0.5112 | $1.62bn |
| Year 10 | 6.72% | $3.39bn | 0.4745 | $1.61bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.74% − 3%) | $73.63bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $34.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.25bn |
| Total present value | $47.19bn |
| Shares outstanding | 69.04m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $683.59 |
| Plus net cash per share | $5.86 |
| Value per share | $689.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 20.3% | Growth 25.3% | Growth 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.74% | $671.16 | $898.25 | $1,193.60 |
| 7.74% | $517.98 | $689.45 | $911.95 |
| 8.74% | $418.79 | $554.43 | $730.01 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.58 | 7.74% | $689.45 |
| Peer beta | 0.35 | 6.71% | $907.63 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.58 | 7.74% | $689.45 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.28 |
| Year 1 | 25.30% | $11.62 |
| Year 2 | 17.50% | $13.66 |
| Year 3 | 12.42% | $15.35 |
| Year 4 | 9.12% | $16.75 |
| Year 5 | 6.98% | $17.92 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.92 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 34.62× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $620.49 |
| Discounted at 7.74% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4517 | $427.42 |
We publish no single base value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $427.42 and $689.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $151.15 and a 10% chance it is above $491.46 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $281.18, from 45.77% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.74% a year.
At $281.18 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 25.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $340.19 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $360.98 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $350.92 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $338.26 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $331.68 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $272.36 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $281.18 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on TPL · Texas Pacific Land Corporation company page · Call and put prices