We publish no single base value for Targa Resources. Our valuation methods put it between $85.72 and $222.93 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $85.72 | -71.1% | free cash flow $933.80m, growth 4.02% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.55%; stress floor $55.90 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $222.93 | -24.8% | earnings per share $11.85 valued at 23.79× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.76 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.55 (median of 20 S&P 500 Energy companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.65 (47% own, 53% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.76 (0.67 × 0.65 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.55% |
Free cash flow grows 4.02% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $933.80m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.02% | $971.34m | 0.9212 | $894.83m |
| Year 2 | 4.02% | $1.01bn | 0.8487 | $857.49m |
| Year 3 | 4.02% | $1.05bn | 0.7818 | $821.70m |
| Year 4 | 4.02% | $1.09bn | 0.7202 | $787.41m |
| Year 5 | 4.02% | $1.14bn | 0.6635 | $754.55m |
| Year 6 | 3.85% | $1.18bn | 0.6113 | $721.88m |
| Year 7 | 3.68% | $1.22bn | 0.5631 | $689.49m |
| Year 8 | 3.51% | $1.27bn | 0.5188 | $657.48m |
| Year 9 | 3.34% | $1.31bn | 0.4779 | $625.92m |
| Year 10 | 3.17% | $1.35bn | 0.4403 | $594.90m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.55% − 3%) | $25.08bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.04bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.41bn |
| Total present value | $18.45bn |
| Shares outstanding | 215.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $85.72 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.98% | Growth 4.02% | Growth 9.02% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.55% | $76.30 | $104.75 | — |
| 8.55% | $63.04 | $85.72 | — |
| 9.55% | $53.80 | $72.50 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.76 | 8.55% | $85.72 |
| Peer beta | 0.55 | 7.61% | $103.48 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.76 | 8.55% | $85.72 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.85 |
| Year 1 | 4.02% | $12.33 |
| Year 2 | 3.71% | $12.79 |
| Year 3 | 3.50% | $13.24 |
| Year 4 | 3.35% | $13.68 |
| Year 5 | 3.24% | $14.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.12 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.79× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $335.99 |
| Discounted at 8.55% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5071 | $222.93 |
We publish no single base value for Targa Resources. Our valuation methods put it between $85.72 and $222.93 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $191.19 and a 10% chance it is above $477.40 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $296.30, from 35.52% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.55% a year.
At $296.30 the price implies free cash flow growing 25.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $281.74 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $286.70 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $294.90 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $302.37 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $314.99 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $264.59 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $296.30 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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