On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Trimble Inc. is $42.15 a share, 24.5% below its $55.83 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $42.15 | -24.5% | free cash flow $570.60m, growth 6.88% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; stress floor $27.22 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 21.6x is 1.6x the 13.8x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.32 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 1.21 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.29 (70% own, 30% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.29 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows 6.88% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $570.60m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.88% | $609.86m | 0.9051 | $551.98m |
| Year 2 | 6.88% | $651.82m | 0.8192 | $533.97m |
| Year 3 | 6.88% | $696.66m | 0.7415 | $516.55m |
| Year 4 | 6.88% | $744.59m | 0.6711 | $499.69m |
| Year 5 | 6.88% | $795.82m | 0.6074 | $483.39m |
| Year 6 | 6.23% | $845.42m | 0.5498 | $464.79m |
| Year 7 | 5.59% | $892.66m | 0.4976 | $444.18m |
| Year 8 | 4.94% | $936.75m | 0.4504 | $421.89m |
| Year 9 | 4.29% | $976.97m | 0.4076 | $398.25m |
| Year 10 | 3.65% | $1.01bn | 0.3689 | $373.60m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $13.93bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $5.14bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.69bn |
| Total present value | $9.83bn |
| Shares outstanding | 233.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $42.15 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 1.88% | Growth 6.88% | Growth 11.88% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $36.35 | $48.94 | $65.68 |
| 10.48% | $31.55 | $42.15 | — |
| 11.48% | $27.88 | $36.97 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.32 | 11.07% | $38.96 |
| Peer beta | 1.21 | 10.57% | $41.63 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $42.15 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $42.15 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $42.15
Base value $42.15 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $30.51 and a 10% chance it is above $100.82 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $55.83, from 46.4% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $55.83 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 6.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $57.52 | $24.41 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $60.09 | $24.73 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $59.46 | $37.88 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $63.49 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $64.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $54.11 | $43.75 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $55.83 | $42.15 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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